Polling, recall weights and demographics - a model
With the latest IPSOS poll there has been a lot of talk about the correct weighting for the 2014 referendum in such polls. There are many ways to weight a poll and the 2014 recall may well not be reliable, which is why some pollsters don't bother with it anymore. However it's always interesting to see how those that do (even if it is a minor factor) use it approach the issue. Ipsos reweighted the raw support in favour of No (458 to 455) towards Yes (444 to 430). They will have their reasons for this, and it may be that their weighting algorithm gives so little weight (maybe none)to this that it's almost irrelevant. However it does beg a few questions. Assuming that the recall is correct, a big if. then the sample is effectively weighted to 2014 voters as 51% Yes and 49% No. So it would be kind of remarkable if this sample did not produce a majority for Yes seeing as it was weighted to 2014 voters. Another way to look at this is that the results are weighted 41% Yes, 42