We need to talk about babies.

In all of the discussion of pensions, the economy, or why can't Scotland be like <insert current favourite economy> few people want to talk about probably the biggest long term problem in Scotland *whispers* fertility. 

Just the mention of this has probably got you shifting in your seat. 

'Scotland' this is a conversation we need to have. 

Scotland has a problem. We've had it for some time and it's only getting worse. It's not something that is cured by independence or caused by the union, it's something much deeper and ingrained into our society, and we really need to deal with it. 

Total Fertility Rate

In demographics fertility is measured in a number of ways but the main statistic is the Total Fertility Rate. This is essentially the number of children each female in a society gives birth to in their lifetime. 

If the TFR is at or around 2.1 this is regarded as the required level of children for a population to sustain itself. That's important for any number of issues but given the recent discussion on state funded pensions, where the workers of today pay for the pensioners of today, we can see the problem if there are less and less workers funding increasing numbers of pensioners receiving the state pension. 

A TFR higher than 2.1 means the population is growing. That will incur certain additional current costs but it's also an investment in the future because no matter how much some people may bang on about 'resources' in Scotland productivity in a modern economy is generated by people. 

A TFR of less than 2.1  means the opposite, and like the mirror of a higher TFR it can mean short term benefits, in the form of lower current costs, but as noted above it will lead to productivity problems and a higher social burden on future generations. 

We're just not having enough babies

Last year Scotland's TFR fell to 1.29. Let me say that again 1.29. This mean that for every female (and therefore broadly every couple) in Scotland on average there are only 1.29 children.

Now it's probably easy to wish that away, with something about lockdown, but to be honest many people thought that lockdown would probably have increased the chance of children being born given it this was the longest blackout baby spike in history. Thus far there is some evidence that lockdown deferred the birth of babies and we may see a short term uptick but TFR is a long term figure and the data grinds our slowly so they don't just turn on one year's data. 

We could also argue that this is a Western phenomenon and Scotland isn't unique. And that is true, most western economies are below the necessary replacement rate. But in Scotland the issue is acute, long term and persistent. 

To help illustrate the problem I've taken data from the 1960s until today from the World Bank and NR Scotland and plotted Scotland against some of our 'nearest neighbours'. 

Ireland was once an outlier (for rather obvious reasons), but it has faced the same challenges as most western societies and a falling fertility rate. 

Scotland, on the other hand has tended to hug the lower end of this chart and since 2000 has persisted with the worst rates of this cohort, with the more recent trend over the last decade being a serious problem. 

But this data should really be viewed logarithmically and with the upper level as the replacement ratio. It's when you look at it this way you can really see Scotland's problem.  

Why can't Scotland be like Ireland/Norway/Denmark/Sweden? Well here is one striking reason why. They have more babies than us. They aren't facing the same level of demographic squeeze that our economy is facing. What's worse is that the real pain of this is yet to come. 

The big data

Of course, perhaps I'm just picking my cohorts to 'make Scotland look bad' but I'm really not, if anything I'm flattering Scotland. Looking at the world bank and NRS data you'll be able to see this for yourself. 

I've tried to simplify the data a little to help provide a visual guide and aid my analysis. 

- Green is a TFR at or above 2 (not even 2.1), 

- Amber is a TFR below 2 but above 1.6, 

- Red is below 1.6. 

I've ranked each data line (all 258 if them) by their 2019 TFR (smallest at the top). 

This is just an extract of the full database. If you want to see the full one I'll enclose it at the bottom of the post but it's just a sea of green below what you are seeing here. 

The key point is this lets you see some relative patterns. For the societies shown there is a phase shift in the 1980s to amber and then another to red in the 2000s. 

Scotland ranks 17 out of 258 entries (some of the entries are regional averages) but no matter how you look at it, Scotland is certainly in the 'this is a bit alarming' group'. 

Furthermore contrast the 'distance' between Scotland in blue and the UK in orange (the UK rates would be even higher if it were rUK). Scotland's peers are Japan (a society known to be ageing rapidly), Belarus, Greece, Finland, the UAE and Poland. All very different, but each of them facing a current acute issue with fertility. 

We really need to talk

In many of these countries discussion is underway about how can they deal with their current population literally dying out, but in Scotland it's just not on the agenda. 

There are a number of reasons for this. 

The first is that it's a very difficult conversation to have in the modern world. Imagine the scene of the Government of Scotland or the UK, the EU Commission or UN telling Scottish women that they need to have more children. The noise would be deafening and rational debate would be lost.

I'm hesitant even publishing this blog as it feels a taboo subject., but shutting down debate on this topic is just going to mean we ignore the problem more and more, and we really can't put this off much longer. 

It also touches on another subject in which debate is all too easy to run out of control: immigration. Some countries such as Germany have seen a recovery in their fertility rate due to extensive immigration, immigrants tend to at least temporarily have a higher fertility rate that non-immigrants, but it does seem that this effect is not long lasting. I've blogged elsewhere about immigration but this is a topic that needs discussed in a very different way in Scotland. 

- Why aren't immigrants coming to Scotland? 

- Does the Scottish population have an appetite for higher levels of immigration? 

- Does Scotland have an appetite for the sort of levels of immigration required to make a serious difference to our fertility rate?

Thirdly as a society how do we really feel about large families? In the UK you only need to look at policies such as the family cap to see evidence that the Government can get away with tapping some sort of prejudice that people with large families should not get state support. This is an irrational policy and entirely self defeating for a society. However in Scotland is the position really that different? 

I've blogged many times on the family cap and the SNP's ability to get rid of it, but the fact that they choose not to is nothing to do with budgets it's because that they  at least fear that they will alienate some of their voters by financially supporting large families. 

Let me put it another way if the removal of the family cap was testing as a popular policy in Scotland do we honestly think the SNP would not be proudly removing it, in the same way as they ended the bedroom tax? 

The drivers of low fertility

The Scottish Government have set out some thoughts on fertility, citing financial insecurity, housing, 'personal' reasons and even a belief that we are saving the planet by not having many kids (yes that was cited as a possible Scottish reason)! Whilst these issues are likely contributory factors nothing here really explains why Scotland is suffering so acutely. 

Indeed this tool from the ONS shows the regional split of the fertility rate in England and Wales and what's remarkable is the number of northern areas in England which remain ahead of Scotland. 

There is likely no single reason here, contraception, the acceptance of abortion, the rise of single parent families and families having children later in life are all undoubtedly factors at play across all of western society, but something, or all of them are driving the position in Scotland in a way that is not beneficial for our present or our future. 

There has been some great work in the past on this such as Kevin Ralston's work from a decade ago where he theorises on the threshold effect of delaying having the first child causes no second child to be born at all. There is clear and sustained evidence that 'Scottish mothers are getting older' so there is certainly something interesting going on here. 

But while a great piece of work it really doesn't explain the Scottish effect, indeed it just begs a new question, why are Scottish mothers getting older?

  

Furthermore looking at the regional breakdown of TFR in Scotland there is nothing particularly surprising. The urban centres (Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen Dundee) have lower fertility and the more rural areas (Argyll and Bute) and commuter belts (Midlothian) are higher than average.

The solution

So what is the solution? If there is one at all? I'm sure a nationalist reading this will instantly come up with the answer as independence, and a unionist will blame the SNP for the fall over the past decade.  When you are a hammer everything looks like a nail. 

In practice this is way beyond the Union, flags or independence. This is about our society and what we want it to look like now, in the medium term and the future. 

It needs our Scottish Government to be brave and take radical steps to skew the economy and welfare policies towards larger families. It needs the UK Government to be far more sympathetic towards immigration in Scotland and where possible the devolution of immigration. 

It needs society and the media to recognise the difficulties around this topic and to deal with it in as mature and as objective a way as possible. It also needs us to have a society shift when it comes to large families and immigration, two shifts which will be difficult to achieve. 

Our navel gazing over the Constitution in Scotland has often blinded us to some of the real challenges facing our society, but the gradual squeezing and ageing of our population is being completely overlooked. 

We are the proverbial frog in the pan of water , the question is do we have the courage to start talking about the fact that the water is getting increasingly hot and maybe we should do something about it? Let's start by at least having an adult conversation about it?

Appendix

As promised here's the full table, enjoy!