Radical Welfare Benefits Blog

You have to feel sorry for George Kerevan. A clearly talented man and proficient writer  but as an MP in Westminster he clearly feels the tension between nationalist propaganda and his own integrity as an intellectual.  We saw the latter with his warts and all piece in City AM  on the short term harmful impact of an fixed currency peg on Scotland. Whilst I disagree with the conclusions of this piece (they are not nearly scratching the surface of the pain a currency peg would cause) they were at least at attempt at being honest with supporters of independence. George made the mistake of telling nationalists that it wouldn't be a land of milk and honey.  The trouble is that the article was just too honest for the SNP, poor George was forced to publish a  humiliating retraction  on social media.  His r ecent article in the National then can been seen as part of his "rehab" into the SNP.  Rather than attempt to use his obvious intellect to present a deep analysis of

In the first part of my note on the case for independence I noted real questions GERS begs of the nationalist movement. I now turn to the soft underbelly of the case for independence in 2014: currency. Currency is probably the most fundamental decision that a new government could take. Get it wrong (like Argentina or Greece) and you can kiss goodbye to your economic growth for a generation. Before getting into this it's worth noting that trying to disparage Sterling won't cut any ice with a No voter, the retention of the Pound was the cornerstone of the nationalist case for independence in 2014. The much hailed (by the SNP) Fiscal Commission Working Group concluded, strongly, that the retention of the Pound was very much in Scotland's interest. To pretend that the Pound is now not the best option for Scotland is just not credible. However we all know now that a currency union is off the table. The Currency Union refusal by the three main Westminster Parties was not a bluf

So some early thoughts on GERS 2016. Kevin Hague  will have the more patient and considered analysis later today but in the meantime here are a few initial thoughts.  Firstly there were no real surprises. The Scottish Onshore economy like the UK economy shows some signs of recovery in terms of Debt to GDP.  The UK fell from 5% to 4% of GDP (which is becoming decidedly manageable) whilst Scotland (including oil) went from 9.1% to 9.5%.  From a population point of view (my preferred measure), the UK deficit moved from £1400 per person to £1,100 per person, whilst the Scottish deficit moved from £2,700 per person to £2,800 per person.  That works out at the fiscal transfer from rUK to Scotland moving from £1300 per person to £1700 per person.  In other words about £9bn of the total £15bn total deficit is covered by the UK fiscal transfer.  The figures followed a revision by the Scottish Government's data which a few people (such as Wings) failed to spot and

Some nationalists are very honest about their case for independence. They fully accept the disruption, the deeply damaging and painful consequences of independence and argue that the debate is simply that full democracy for Scotland is a price worth paying. In other words independence no matter what the cost, no matter how painful it is it's worth it because you can't put a price on democracy.  That's a fair enough principle, it's a heck of a statement to put your ideology before people's welfare but if that is so important to you then who am I to argue.  The trouble is very few nationalists actually really mean that, indeed it's often accompanied by a considerable amount of inconsistency which generally shows it up as anything but a principle. In the vast majority of cases it's a just a rational judgement call on the debate between sovereignty and the efficiency of pooling and sharing.  Pooling and sharing Let's start at the most obvious level -

Strange as may seem to many I'm not ideologically against independence, indeed I would have very little issue with it were the UK to ever become a full part of the EU, join the Euro and the  fiscal compact .  However I'm the first to admit that the UK is highly unlikely to rejoin the EU (let's now take Brexit as a given) and certainly won't sign up to the Euro. I'm also quite sure that the most Scottish nationalists would, quite logically, be opposed to full European integration. You can't very well argue for full democratic control for Scotland whilst simultaneously arguing to cede control over fiscal or monetary policy.  So let's assume that "my" route to independence is out of the window, for now, and focus on the current case for independence, in particular with respect to GERS and currency.  These are the two main impediments to many unionists switching to independence. So rather denial, avoidance or the use of "talking Scotland

The new GERS will be published on the 24th of August and it's likely to show another substantial fiscal transfer from within the UK to Scotland.  This fiscal transfer will be worth around £1,700 per head, so £6,800 a year to a family of 4, or £4,285 for every taxpayer in Scotland.  Let's also recall that even before revenue from the north sea collapsed Scotland still benefitted from a substantial fiscal transfer from the UK.  Indeed the last fiscal transfer that went the other way was 2008-09, over the last 15 years there have only been two years when the fiscal transfer (including oil) flowed from the Scotland to the rest of the UK.  As the last 15 years show, the fiscal transfer from the UK to Scotland is the norm, but it is absolutely nothing for Scotland to be ashamed about. It simply reflects a rightful flowback against the normal gravitation of our wealth and capital to the centre (London) that you would expect in the capitalist system. When the 24th comes I won'

Losing is hard. I know, I'm a Hearts and Scotland football fan. There are lots of ways of dealing with failure. Some just go into depression and some form of denial. Others pick themselves up, dust themselves off and get back in the game. And others just don't accept that they actually lost.  When it comes to the latter category the ultranats fit right in. They argue that Scotland was cheated out of independence  or that promises were broken, and some even write a whole book on it that's full of holes .  But for those that exhibit signs of depression and denial a new consolation has emerged. Independence is inevitable.  This comfort meme is based on two ideas, neither of which holds much water.  Since the indyref Firstly independence is rising in the opinion polls.  This all flows from the betrayal narrative above but is also based on a selective reading of the opinion polls.  The trouble is when you look at all the polls since the independence referendum (from