Independence is inevitable

Losing is hard. I know, I'm a Hearts and Scotland football fan. There are lots of ways of dealing with failure. Some just go into depression and some form of denial. Others pick themselves up, dust themselves off and get back in the game. And others just don't accept that they actually lost. 

When it comes to the latter category the ultranats fit right in. They argue that Scotland was cheated out of independence or that promises were broken, and some even write a whole book on it that's full of holes. 

But for those that exhibit signs of depression and denial a new consolation has emerged. Independence is inevitable. 

This comfort meme is based on two ideas, neither of which holds much water. 

Since the indyref
Firstly independence is rising in the opinion polls.  This all flows from the betrayal narrative above but is also based on a selective reading of the opinion polls. 

The trouble is when you look at all the polls since the independence referendum (from What Scotland thinks) the case for the growth in the Yes movement is not there. 

In fact if you use a standard least square regression trend line if anything the case for independence is going backwards. Furthermore none of this takes account of the fact that during the independence referendum the final opinion polls continued to give a bias towards Yes. 

Whilst the Yes vote was broadly correct the No vote was under represented in the final polls as the undecideds were demonstrably shy nos.




So with polling not going the way of the ultranats, then they turn to the breakdown of the independence results to justify this empty hope. 


Why Yes lost
Polling breakdowns of the independence referendum recognise that people's views on independence changed with age and whilst there was no linear relationship, as some ultranats like to claim, it certainly is the case that the older you are the more likely you were to vote No. 

Here then is the new case for inevitability. Whilst Scotland did vote No it only did so because it was held back by old people who sold them out. 

Given time as these younger, energised, Yes supporters mature and the older union supporters die out then surely the Union is doomed. Yes the case for the inevitability of independence then rests on the death of older voters, and even  leading SNP figures use the dog whistle to send this line to their supporters.

The longer term
The trouble is, again, when you look at the data this doesn't stack up - I know that will probably come as a shock to everyone! Supporting the status quo in respect of the Union as you get older is quite normal and has been a long term feature of attitudes towards independence. 

For example the Scottish Social Attitudes survey has been testing the question of Scotland's attitude towards independence and the union since 1999. That gives us a consistent opportunity to look at the long term history of the attitude towards independence. 


Two points stand out from the data. There is a weak positive trend towards independence in the data, but that is strongly related to the recent set of results which are heavily influenced by the independence referendum itself. That is not to dismiss the success of the Yes campaign, they clearly improved the support for independence, but it does highlight a particular issue. We've been here before. 

In 2005 the same survey found a similar two year trend towards independence with support reaching 38% compared to the current 41%. At that point was independence  inevitable? Clearly not, the following years saw the case for independence fall backwards once more. 

More importantly when you look in detail at the data a clear pattern emerges in respect of age. Indeed if you go way back to 1999 a similar "inevitable" case for independence emerged. 

With the young over enthusiastic for independence and the elderly against it there was a clear correlation between age and support for the union in 1999. Other things being equal with the demographics stacked in this way we were set for a consistent and sustainable rise in the case for independence. In other words the old unionist would die out and the young would mature carrying with them their support for ending the union. 

Before anyone throws - ah but it's different this time - it's worth pointing out that in 1999 this younger generation was radicalised by Thatcherism, the poll tax and the frustrations of not being able to achieve devolution for nearly 20 years. This generation was scarred by Westminster, there was no way they would turn their back on independence, was there? 

But as the long term pattern of independence support shows that is anything but the case. Support for independence has waxed and waned over the years with only a very weak trend in favour of independence. 

So something else must be going on? And of course there is - the flaw in the argument is other things being equal, the fact is attitudes to independence change over time with events and with time and evidently maturity. For example the collapse in oil revenues, the abandonment of any pretence to keep the pound, the collapse of the Labour party in the UK and the vote to leave the EU will all have a far greater (and conflicting) impacts on the probability of independence 

Independence isn't inevitable, that doesn't mean it cant happen or the Yes side can ever win in the future but the idea that it is inevitable is just not borne out by any evidence, but you could say that about most of the assertions of the ultranats.