Scotland only controls 15% of welfare

Nationalists have a big problem when it comes to welfare. Welfare is now largely devolved to Scotland with the UK level of benefits essentially nothing more than the minimum level that applies.  

Complaints from nationalists about poverty, foodbanks, welfare cuts can now be laid squarely at the door of the Scottish Government. 

How therefore to deal with such a thorny problem?

Denial

This starts with a quite deliberate misstatement of welfare devolution by the SNP and Reform Scotland with a claim that only 15% of of welfare is being devolved to Scotland. It's a good line but it's just not true. 

Some specific benefits are fully devolved to Scotland (and they do amount to 15% of welfare), by fully devolved I mean that the Scottish Government have the right to increase or even decrease these benefits. 

But all other benefits are partially devolved. The word "partially" usually send ultra-nats into a spin at this stage, until they find out what partially means. The main restriction on Scotland is that they are unable to reduce these partially devolved benefits. It's fair enough to argue against that restriction but I haven't heard many ultranats seeking to cut benefits, so they are arguing for a power they don't want. 

Uncomfortably for ultranats the Scottish Government has the power to introduce new welfare benefits in Scotland, or top up partially devolved benefits. 

So for example pensions are partially devolved to Scotland. The commendable WASPI campaign has highlighted concerns over the lack of notice women born in the 50s received when the state pension age was increased to bring it into line with men. 

However under our devolution powers the Scottish Parliament can remedy this situation by topping up these women's pension benefits. As Scottish Labour promised to do in their manifesto. 

Even the SNP gave a grudging commitment to do so in their manifesto. Which is a strange thing for them to do seeing as it blows a hole in their argument that 85% of welfare spending decisions will be made in Westminster. 

The numbers

So how does the power to top up or create new benefits mean that the 15%/85% figure is simply wrong?

Well it's easy to illustrate with a simple (but extreme) example. Let's just assume that the Scottish Government decide to double all existing partially devolved benefits. Out of all welfare that would mean that the 85% is now 46% of the total welfare budget. 

Instead of a welfare budget where 85% is controlled by Westminster we have 46% partially devolved (the UK minimum level) 8% fully devolved and 46% in top ups. 

Let me put it another way Welfare in Scotland costs £16.7bn according to Reform Scotland. 

£2.5bn of which is fully devolved. 

So £14.2bn is set at UK level. The Scottish Government decides to add another £14.2bn to the Scottish welfare bill so the total cost is now £30.9bn. 

Of that £30.9bn, £16.7bn* is now controlled by the Scottish Government and this is 54% of the welfare bill. 

* £14.2bn + 2.5bn = £16.7bn

Obviously the Scottish Government is not about to double nearly all welfare! But the numbers make the point the 85% figure is entirely at the behest of the Scottish Government. Indeed the only real restriction on the welfare bill in Scotland is the affordability of welfare and the popularity of increasing benefits. 

The trouble is that the SNP know that raising taxes to pay for welfare is incredibly unpopular even with SNP voters. So rather than admit that they are choosing to accept UK welfare levels they are trying to pretend that their hands are tied.