Thursday, 9 March 2017

IBOTTHH

Given the developments of late you might question why the Yes campaign made such a big thing over "Once in a Generation" during the last independence referendum. After all what was the material advantage in boxing themselves into a rhetorical corner in the event of losing the referendum?

When you consider that downside there must have been a huge upside to make the leadership of the Yes campaign promote the line so vociferously.

The Yes Project Fear
And there was. "Once in a Generation" enabled the Yes campaign to run their own Project Fear. With the possibility of only one chance at an independence referendum they could maximize their vote.

  • Got a problem with the Currency Union that doesn't really exist, just suck it up this is our one and only chance at independence. 
  • Got a problem with our Corporation Tax cut, just ignore it this is our one and only chance at independence. 
  • Got a problem with our plans to get back into the EU, just ignore it this is your one chance.... etc.
Furthermore the device was a double edged sword:

You need to vote for independence it's your ONE CHANCE to stop:

Basically on the Yes side you could get away with saying anything you liked to scare people into voting Yes because this was it, after September the 18th we'd never be here again, but...

Here we go again
Of course we all know what happened next. Despite boos from unionists during election debates Sturgeon did a screeching u-turn to argue that the Scottish people can get another independence referendum whenever they want and she spelt out the routemap for this in her own triple lock (something she has failed to pass).

The trouble is if we do indeed get another referendum then the Yes2 movement have a serious problem, and I dont think they have picked up on it yet.

If we can have an independence referendum whenever we want then if you dont like any aspect of the independence prospectus just vote to remain in the UK and wait until a better plan comes along.

  • Don't like the new Scottish currency pegged to Sterling and at the mercy of international speculators? Just vote no and wait for the next referendum. 
  • Don't want an independent Scotland in the EU? Just vote no and wait for another referendum where the plan is to stay out of the EU. 
  • Don't want a "Tory Lite" pro enterprise Scotland? Don't worry vote no this time and we'll get another referendum where we are proposing a socialist utopia. 
But it's the Yes movement's project fear that this becomes the greatest issue. 

Vote No to stop the privatization of the SNHS, the abolition of the Scottish Parliament, the end of Barnett? 


Why? 

Can't we just wait until the things you are warning of are about to happen and then vote for independence to stop them?

Independence based on things that haven't happened
This is what I call the case for Independence Based On Things That Haven't Happened - #IBOTTHH and it's an increasing sign of the poverty of the yes campaign that they are increasingly relying on #IBOTTHH, without realising that they have blunted their own sword on the topic.

This movement towards #IBOTTHH can be seen from the very top - see Sturgeon's argument that the devolution settlement was about to be unpicked to the very bottom with "zoomers" arguing again that there is a secret plan to abolish the Scottish Parliament.

Witness also the full on Project Fear over the supposed disaster that will be Brexit. The Yes campaign are desperately trying to hype this up because they know that most people (including myself) want to wait and see what the final result of Brexit will be before taking a look at the independence question again. 


For my part I would very much be prepared to look at independence as a credible option for Scotland if the UK ends up with a disastrous Brexit deal. However it hasn't happened yet so #IBOTTHH over Brexit is not credible for me and seemingly not for anything other than around a quarter of Scots

Therefore if you see someone from the Yes movement giving you the case for independence based on scare stories of the future just tag them with #IBOTTHH and tell them to come back when it happens and we'll consider the case of independence then.

At the end of the day the Yes movement have no one but themselves to blame for this, they are the ones who campaigned on Once in a Generation and have so publicly dumped that commitment. I'm sure we will see them try to revive the idea in a future campaign, something along the lines of "We'll never get another indyref" but sorry folks the cat is out the bag. Like on so many issues you can't be trusted, so when it comes to #IBOTTHH you'll need to prove it before you'll get me to look at independence as a viable option.

























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