2017- What kind of day has it been

What a night!

In yet another election I was stunned by the exit poll and the eventual result. At least this time I was prepared for it and cleared my mind of any preconceptions of the results. However I could never have imagined this.

Having had a few hours sleep in the end I've concluded that overall this is a good result and I thought I'd set out why.

Indyref 2 is finished
I pointed out the poor state of the yes campaign yesterday, but I also noted that I wasn't sure if the polls were still over estimating the nationalist vote. The results confirms that they are. Pre election (and in the case of Ashcroft's post election poll) the polls had the SNP in the low 40% mark, that's still a comfortable and systematic bias over the actual 37%.

On that basis it's logical to assume that the Yes vote is also being exaggerated in the polls

Consequently when you look at the polling trends it realty does look like the bottom has fallen out of the independence campaign.



Look at it another way and view the trend of actual SNP (plus greens where appropriate) votes and it's not looking good for the nationalists.




With the tide turning against them, a serious setback in losing seats that even the SNP's expectation management team hadn't contemplated, then you just can't see the SNP having the strength to have another go. 

Furthermore to achieve a legal referendum they would need to get something through the UK Parliament and I just don't see how that is possible unless the Scottish Tories do one or the most spectacular U-turns in the history of politics.

Finally I think that the SNP's 'mandate' to hold an indyref has also gone up in smoke overnight. I argued here that under Brexit the SNP have a mandate to call a independence referendum (but the Scottish Greens do not). However as I'll argue below I think that Brexit (or any meaningful definition of it) is over in the short term and with that the SNP mandate goes up in a puff of smoke. 

So the SNP can't call an independence referendum legally, politically and they probably dont have the strength to call and win one anyway. It's over. For now.

The SNP coalition will fracture
The end of any indyref on the horizon has significant ramifications for the SNP coalition of support that took them to 45% in the indyref and 50% in 2015. This bizarre coalition of right wingers from the traditional heartlands (Fergus Ewing) through to the socialist wing (Mhairi Black) are held together by a glue called independence. If a Scexit is not longer on the horizon then their differing politics will start to conflict. As I said here:

"The cracks in that coalition are finally beginning to show, how much longer its got I've honestly no idea, but I do know this; when it does crack the spite and hate that will engulf the nationalist movement will be a sight to behold."
With the Scottish Parliament controlling public services, income tax and effectively all of welfare how much longer can the progressive socialist wing of the SNP be expected to sit on their hands as the SNP Government continues to bide its time doing next to nothing waiting for the independence tide to turn. In a few weeks time I suspect we'll look back at this day as the day the coalition cracked.


Brexit means EFTA

Brexit means Brexit? May's soundbite no longer has any chance of holding given her lack of majority. Effectively there is no mandate in the House of Commons to leave the Customs Union and possibly even the Single Market (as the Labour manifesto is loose on actual commitment). 

Similarly the DUP have a rather lukewarm Brexit policy and have a serious commitment to maintain free and open trade with Eire (and by extension the EU). 

It's therefore very difficult to see a UK government getting any kind of "Hard Brexit" deal and having any chance of surviving a "no deal" option. 

The EU know all this. They know we're weakened and the government is hamstrung so something will have to change. 

My own view is that we're therefore likely to end up with an EFTA type deal. This comes at the cost of paying into the EU and having no say over policy and having free movement (albeit with an emergency brake). There will be a lot of spinning and repackaging of the outcome, a lot of talk of transitional arrangements etc, but in effect this is where I think we're going to end up in two years time.

I underestimated Corbyn
I fundamentally underestimated Corbyn. He ran a great campaign and enthused young people to actually vote, something no UK level campaign has been able to do for a generation. He deserves a steady and patient level of support from the Labour Party for the foreseeable future. 

He also has a huge opportunity ahead of him. He's so close to power and has already shown that he's prepared to be pragmatic in at least the presentation of his politics (witness him enabling the renewal of Trident in the manifesto), how much further is he prepared to go? There is a huge opportunity for a "big tent" Labour approach led by Corbyn and his moves over the next few days will show if he has the real desire for office or is he's still playing student politics. 

I underestimated him before, hopefully he'll continue to defy my low expectations.

I don't think there will be another election soon

The Fixed Term Parliament Act will make it very difficult for there to be another election. The DUP will back the Conservatives (or at least will never work with Corbyn) so that means a minority Tory government. 

However to have a new election we need a super majority of Labour and the Conservatives - that's highly unlikely to happen as why would either call another election unless they both thought they could win. 

The alternative is a vote of no confidence in the government AND no alternative government being available. That means the Conservatives handing over to the Labour party to govern (if only for a short period of time), I cant see any circumstances in which that would be enabled by the DUP. 

Therefore I think we're in this for the long haul, a weak government scrapping around from day to day to get majorities for its votes and budgets. That doesn't necessarily mean bad government but it does mean a very weak hand for the UK in Brexit negotiations, which further underlines my view that Brexit means EFTA. 

What kind of day has it been 

All in all, as someone who believes in unions, that is the Union of the UK and the EU. I think this was a good result. It stops the threat of independence, in the short term, to the UK and blunts the aspirations of those that want a hard Brexit. 

Like the last few elections this result was a hell of a shock, but unlike so many it was a positive one for me. Time will tell but 8 June 2017 could be a very significant day in the history of the United Kingdom and the European Union.