Transcript of the Mark Blyth interview in full

That  

00:04

this

00:05

is the foreign press association in new

00:07

york and i am ian williams the president

00:10

and we have with us today markiplier

00:14

who is um i think you're a us citizen

00:18

now as well like me an

00:19

expatriated scot um

00:22

who maintains connections uh and

00:25

watches closely what is happening across

00:28

the atlantic

00:30

and his main expertise is in

00:33

economics so his very very good book

00:37

which i interviewed him some years ago

00:39

was on austerity

00:41

which he pointed out was an extremely

00:43

bad idea

00:44

uh and eloquently and demonstratively

00:47

showed it was a very very bad idea

00:49

and it was amazing anyway his latest

00:52

book which i happened to miss

00:53

because i think i was dying in hospital

00:55

at the time it was angonomics i just

00:57

have to catch up on it

00:59

and get back to it about the effect of

01:02

what austerity does to people's sanity

01:05

yeah absolutely

01:07

so uh with the moving

01:10

to scotland he's followed closely the

01:13

british and the scottish economies

01:15

and looks at the independence battle

01:18

as a sort of pragmatic thing but it's

01:21

not just about scotland because i think

01:23

one of the reasons why

01:24

foreign press association wanted to uh

01:28

highlight this issue which is got

01:30

implications in lots of ways that people

01:32

don't quite consider

01:34

oh yeah it's got implications for small

01:36

countries

01:37

and remember this is the dissolution of

01:40

a union that's lasted in one form

01:42

another since

01:43

uh oh 400 years if you take it back to

01:46

1600 the union of the crowns

01:48

uh 300 years if you had the union of the

01:52

parliaments

01:53

this is more far more significant than

01:55

texas or missouri or

01:57

or kansas seceding from the union in in

02:00

that sense

02:01

it's an historic uh nation that's been

02:04

dismembered

02:05

an historic state that's being

02:07

dismembered

02:08

possibly and it's also got implications

02:11

therefore it's got implications for

02:13

catalonia

02:14

it has implications for al sass lorraine

02:16

it has implications for brittany

02:18

um lots of places so lots of people in

02:21

europe are going to look very anxiously

02:23

which of course is what complicates

02:25

matters for um

02:27

complicated matters for the scots who

02:30

want independence

02:31

because the spanish and many others have

02:33

shown

02:34

as in the case of kosovo that they don't

02:36

like secession

02:37

as a general principle yeah they don't

02:39

look at the particular cases they don't

02:41

look at particular examples

02:43

they look at the precedent it sets for

02:45

their fractious

02:47

regions so um we have

02:51

that we also have the fact that

02:54

britain's

02:54

um seat at the top table in the u.n for

02:57

example depends to some extent it's not

02:59

an explicit one-on-one

03:01

but it's possession of one of the five

03:03

states possessing nuclear weapons

03:06

and itself happens that um england does

03:09

not possess those weapons they're in

03:10

scotland

03:12

which um the scots alternatively whinge

03:14

about because

03:15

they're the number one target and two

03:17

they gloat about because it brings a lot

03:19

of money into the economy

03:20

from america and from london

03:24

so there are lots of implications here

03:26

um

03:27

but the international alliances is

03:30

britain worth as much to nato without

03:32

the

03:33

nuclear bases in scotland and the sort

03:35

of stranglehold on the north atlantic

03:37

passage for submarines

03:39

uh and of course there's the whole issue

03:41

is it good for the scots

03:43

um speaking as someone from liverpool

03:46

uh i do hope the scots don't because it

03:49

leaves us in the

03:50

north of england on our own facing the

03:53

um

03:54

the norman the norman yoke out of the

03:57

home counties

03:59

but that's the sort of minor and

04:02

separate issue

04:03

so so much explain the economics

04:06

can scotland go it alone so here's

04:10

so much stuff to cover you've named all

04:11

the important stuff and i do hope we get

04:13

a chance to talk about all of it because

04:14

it's all important the nukes everything

04:16

right

04:17

but let's start with a simple way of

04:19

thinking about this now

04:21

much of scotland's current resurgent

04:24

interest in being independent comes from

04:26

the fact that it was voted down in 2014

04:29

didn't get through the referendum but

04:31

then it was brexit

04:32

and brexit was this thing it's like we

04:35

voted to remain

04:36

england voted to go now we've been

04:37

dragged out this is going to cause harm

04:39

to the economy

04:40

blah blah blah so we need to be on our

04:42

own now there's pretty good arguments

04:44

for being on your own and i'll go on to

04:46

those in a minute make that the second

04:47

thing but let's just think about the

04:48

problem this way

04:50

it's two pretty average sized cities

04:53

one of them is and could be a bigger

04:56

financial hub

04:57

the other one is a commercial slash

04:59

industrial hub

05:00

it's got an oil tank which like oil all

05:02

other towns is going to decline

05:04

naming aberdeen and it's got a kind of

05:06

biotech video

05:07

game hub kind of with dundee then

05:10

there's a whole bunch of small towns

05:12

that kind of live off tourism and

05:13

agriculture and things like that

05:15

there's lots of space it could generate

05:17

lots of renewables

05:19

it's in a strategically important

05:20

location and there's only four and a

05:22

half million people

05:23

more people live in brooklyn new york

05:25

than live in scotland so how hard could

05:27

it be

05:28

right that's number one here's number

05:30

two if your argument

05:32

that we need to do this is because of

05:33

brexit then

05:35

scotland separated from england is the

05:37

biggest brexit in history

05:39

because the last time scotland was fully

05:40

economically independent the word

05:42

capitalism hadn't been uttered

05:45

it's been together for over 300 years

05:49

so if pooling apart 30 years of economic

05:52

integration with europe is going to hurt

05:54

300 is going to hurt a lot now that

05:57

means one of two things

05:58

either you have brass plate independence

06:00

by which i mean

06:01

you declare independence you get a vote

06:03

but nothing really changes you put some

06:05

brass plates in edinburgh

06:06

and nothing's really changing you have

06:08

the pound dollar size though

06:10

or you have actual regulatory divergence

06:12

a different currency a different

06:14

economic policy etc etc

06:16

which will entail significant short to

06:19

medium term costs

06:20

there is no way around that and we know

06:22

that because it's brexit

06:24

times 10. now those two things are

06:26

simultaneously true

06:28

if you're an optimist you start with the

06:29

how hard could it be i mean it's only

06:31

four million people and we've got loads

06:33

of resources

06:34

if you're a pessimist you go 300 years

06:36

of deep economic integration

06:38

good luck unwinding that both of these

06:40

things are simultaneously true

06:42

and both of them have to be taken into

06:44

account in any serious discussion

06:46

of the economics of independence

06:50

and um you mentioned about the uh it

06:53

always perplexed me when the

06:54

scots nationalists were pressing for

06:56

independence but wanted to keep the

06:58

pound and i couldn't see

07:00

what was the point of independence if

07:02

your

07:03

economy was going to be completely

07:05

dependent on the women's of the bank of

07:07

england and the british treasury

07:09

right but again that's a kind of

07:11

one-sided

07:12

understanding of this right particularly

07:14

because it's inflected with a lot of

07:16

modern monetary theory ideas about if

07:18

you've got a currency everything else

07:19

kind of works itself out which is not

07:21

really true

07:22

so let's think about this in a slightly

07:24

different way 60 percent

07:26

scotland's imports to gdp is about 70

07:29

which means it's a small open economy 60

07:33

of those exports go to england the thing

07:35

that you're about to separate from

07:37

so one of the major growth drivers for

07:39

your economy

07:40

i currently has a 100 regulatory

07:43

alignment

07:44

free trade you're about to put barriers

07:47

in between that for

07:48

60 percent of your exports that's going

07:51

to hurt

07:52

second thing you can have your own

07:54

currency but if you're a small open

07:56

economy it doesn't really matter

07:58

because at the end of the day you end up

08:00

pegging to your biggest competitor your

08:02

biggest markets

08:03

so the danes pegged to the euro even

08:05

though that they have their own currency

08:06

the swedes pegged to the euro even

08:08

though the other one comes

08:09

the hungarians the romanians they all

08:11

pegged to the euro because that's what

08:12

they trade into

08:13

right so 60 of our exports still go to

08:15

britain until we change that until that

08:17

becomes a different configuration of

08:19

exports

08:20

we're going to peg to the pound so you

08:22

can actually have your own country

08:23

you're still going to run a peg to the

08:25

pump right

08:26

so this is the stuff that needs to be

08:28

thought through

08:29

it's not just a question of if you have

08:31

your own currency then you will be fine

08:33

right if you're a small open economy you

08:34

have what's called the current account

08:36

constraint right you need to export in

08:39

order to pay for your imports because

08:40

you'll never be self-sufficient in the

08:42

stuff that you need

08:43

to do that you need to have a credible

08:46

exchange rate policy so that people

08:48

don't go that's just funny money i'm not

08:50

touching it

08:50

and if a whole bunch of your exports go

08:52

to one place you end up basically trying

08:54

to shadow the exchange rate of your

08:56

major trading partner

08:58

so what's your autonomy not much right

09:00

these are the structural facts that

09:02

people need to deal with

09:04

um we had a sort of a bit of a dress

09:07

rehearsals for this with the

09:09

independence of uh southern ireland era

09:12

the republic of ireland

09:13

because they were using the british

09:15

pound until um

09:17

until after the the euro came i think

09:19

wasn't it no they introduced the punt

09:21

yeah yeah

09:22

it was the panda point and then but

09:24

basically all the way through the punt

09:25

period what they were doing is they were

09:27

basically shadowing the british pound so

09:29

it's more of a nominal than a kind of

09:31

real

09:32

independent monetary policy i mean i

09:34

think ian if you look at this globally

09:36

right independent money policy is a bit

09:37

of a joke that died sometime around 2010

09:40

everybody follows the fed if the fed

09:43

puts rates up

09:44

everybody pays rights up if the fed cuts

09:46

right everybody cuts rates right i mean

09:48

it's a bit of a canard

09:49

anyway

09:52

so is this an argument for or against

09:55

independence oh no no

09:58

here's my here's how i think about it

09:59

with all those constraints right i think

10:00

there's three things that have to be

10:02

accepted

10:03

the first one is and i put myself in the

10:05

nationalist camp not because i'm a

10:07

nationalist emotionally

10:09

but simply by default i'd call it a kind

10:11

of pragmatic nationalism

10:13

gordon brown did a piece in the daily

10:14

mail the other day where he framed it as

10:16

30

10:16

unionists 30 nationalists 40 percent

10:19

they can be persuaded right

10:20

i'm one of the 40 percent that's kind of

10:22

edited in the nationalist camp for three

10:24

main reasons

10:25

the first one is i don't think the

10:26

british economic model is sustainable

10:28

over the long term

10:30

it is essentially a giant financial hub

10:32

that generates about 12 percent of gdp

10:34

in london

10:35

22 percent of british gdp actually is

10:37

generated in london as a whole

10:39

the rest of the country is gva negative

10:41

gross value added negative which means

10:43

it's not growing

10:44

qed everybody lives off transfers second

10:47

thing is

10:48

when boris and his crew who are going to

10:50

be in power forever are given the state

10:51

of the labor party

10:52

talk about leveling up the country that

10:54

is an imaginary that runs in a line from

10:57

liverpool to sheffield

10:59

right there's nothing above that

11:00

scotland is already not part of that

11:02

imaginary

11:03

there's a de facto independence in this

11:05

world and

11:06

and the third one is the demographic one

11:09

which is that you know people

11:11

themselves uh particularly younger

11:12

people in scotland

11:14

overwhelmingly think this is a good idea

11:17

now we can get into why it's the young

11:18

versus the old which has to do with

11:20

assets and

11:21

pensions and all those sorts of things

11:23

but at the end of the day

11:24

the demographic sorry the the democratic

11:29

misfit if you will between permanently

11:32

being governed by english stories and

11:33

consistently voting for

11:35

anything but that and never having your

11:37

own government

11:38

right i think all of those pressures

11:40

basically push you towards a this has to

11:42

be better

11:43

but it pushes you in a nationalist

11:45

direction the problem is to get there

11:47

you need to basically square these

11:48

two things how do you unravel 300 years

11:51

of independence without killing yourself

11:53

and get to a better place but you do

11:55

have the advantage that it's really just

11:57

two cities that live pretty close

11:58

together and a handful of other things

12:00

so how difficult can it be

12:02

and the answer is not get your own

12:04

currency and everything will be fine

12:05

right

12:05

you need to think about what is the

12:07

underlying business model what is

12:08

scotland actually do in terms of exports

12:10

because it's going to have to live by

12:12

its exports

12:13

if carbon is on the way out you can

12:14

forget north sea oil so what's the next

12:16

trick right

12:17

that's the stuff that we need to think

12:19

about over the next five to ten years

12:20

and make a convincing case

12:22

that we can get from here to there

12:26

well we can do the life of brian gigg um

12:28

what have

12:29

what's westminster ever done for us

12:34

and fair and fair point i mean you know

12:36

any unionist will tell you that scotland

12:37

does get higher per capita gdp spending

12:40

because of the bar

12:40

formula and all the rest of it but at

12:42

the end of the day it's kind of like the

12:44

whole country's living on the dole and

12:45

the doors paid for by

12:47

england if that business model in london

12:49

runs into trouble which i think

12:51

eventually it's going to

12:52

then the ability to sustain those

12:54

transfers is already in question

12:56

why would you want to basically have the

12:57

next 30 years of living on handouts from

12:59

london

13:00

i just think it's a bad option

13:02

especially in london

13:03

under the political control of people

13:05

who don't believe in handouts

13:06

for anybody that is all well it depends

13:09

i mean you know they'll do plenty

13:10

hundreds along to keep them in power

13:12

yeah but um i haven't noticed an

13:15

enthusiasm for pouring money into

13:16

northern

13:17

and scottish unemployment or even

13:19

watching unemployment come

13:23

what about the diplomatic repercussions

13:25

and the sort of quasi-military

13:27

repercussions

13:28

the scotland in or out of nato in or out

13:31

of the european union

13:33

yeah so this is very interesting so

13:35

basically the snp have embraced a kind

13:38

of

13:38

knee-jerk unilateralism right get the

13:40

nukes out we don't want any of that

13:42

stuff

13:43

and i i don't know how that's going to

13:45

work out in the long term because

13:47

if you want basically enough fdi for

13:50

direct investment

13:51

to up your investment in your economy so

13:53

that you can change your business model

13:55

so you can be independent

13:56

a good place to look is the united

13:58

states right

13:59

and there's plenty of goodwill and

14:02

there's plenty of organizations plenty

14:03

of rich scots embedded in everything

14:05

from silicon valley to the chicago

14:07

markets and new york real estate the

14:08

whole law

14:09

would be perfectly willing to help and

14:11

if the first thing you do is to

14:13

basically say to

14:14

nato and to the leader of nato that

14:16

we're not going to host any nukes

14:17

anymore and you can forget it and your

14:19

submarine access is cut off

14:21

and you can't dock you can't dock in our

14:23

ports or any of that sort of stuff

14:24

they're going to make life very

14:25

difficult and if you do that also from

14:28

the

14:28

european side you're going to basically

14:30

bugger up nato's only nuclear deterrent

14:32

as you pointed out

14:33

don't expect them to be too forthcoming

14:35

on the eu membership

14:37

on the other hand if you basically think

14:39

about this as an asset which you also

14:41

alluded to

14:42

one way to do this is to basically lease

14:44

the bases

14:45

so you would do a joint lease to the

14:47

united kingdom in the united states for

14:49

cool poor holy loft whatever it is you

14:51

declare an ex-anti-sovereign territory

14:53

you sign a 50-year lease

14:55

and you get 2 billion a year like you

14:57

crimean naval bases that what could go

14:59

wrong with the model like that

15:01

well here's the thing thinking about it

15:02

this is when uh when the us was doing

15:04

its

15:05

uh war on everything in the early 2000s

15:08

um they were signing basing agreements

15:10

with azerbaijan and all these places and

15:12

they're all just

15:13

raking in billions now you've got you're

15:15

doing a transit project you're trying to

15:17

get from where you are economically to

15:18

where you want to be economically

15:20

and basically getting a ton of fdi and

15:23

getting a transfer of 2 billion a year

15:25

into an economy of only four and a half

15:27

million people

15:28

that would be a good thing to do but

15:30

then you would have to basically swallow

15:32

all you've said about

15:33

no nukes and all that sort of stuff so

15:36

it depends if the politics wins out if

15:38

the politics wins out in the way that

15:39

it's been written just now it's going to

15:40

make the economic transition that much

15:42

harder

15:43

and um well you don't see a role for

15:46

others uh

15:46

i wouldn't accept russian rubles but

15:48

what about the chinese if they said

15:50

well they were very much like a naval

15:52

base in the north atlantic

15:54

well you know even the naval base i mean

15:56

basically if you just went to them into

15:57

the belt and road initiative and

15:59

the asian development bank and said all

16:01

right really two small cities that have

16:02

already got pretty good communications

16:04

infrastructure

16:05

how about you build the 5g well that's

16:07

huawei so that's a security risk for

16:09

everybody in the west right but you

16:11

could do that

16:12

um how about you rebuild our port

16:13

infrastructure for us and you gave us a

16:15

big loan to do it

16:16

to do that was a rounding error on their

16:18

balance sheet it's a tiny amount of

16:20

money

16:20

and it gets them right into a strategic

16:22

position so you could use

16:23

the threat of doing that as a way of

16:25

getting what you want

16:27

alternatively you could just go with

16:28

them and say well how about we just do

16:29

this with china because you don't want

16:30

to play ball

16:31

the point is scotland has options that

16:33

people don't think about the question is

16:35

whether they have

16:36

if you will the where with all their

16:37

desire to follow through on those

16:39

options

16:41

well um what would happen the law of

16:44

unintended consequences

16:46

if the we saw what happened with brexit

16:48

is that boris johnson didn't expect to

16:50

win the referendum and has been trying

16:52

to dig himself out the whole

16:53

he put himself in ever since would the

16:56

scots snatch virgin have the same

16:58

problem

16:59

well it depends on what you promised

17:00

going into i mean the problem that i've

17:03

seen so far is the complete lack of

17:05

specificity

17:06

as to here is what the scottish business

17:08

model is now

17:10

here is where we want to be this is how

17:12

we're going to get from here to here by

17:14

doing this

17:15

instead of what we've got is denmark is

17:18

awesome we should be like denmark if we

17:20

were independent we would be denmark no

17:22

you wouldn't be denmark denmark took 600

17:24

years to become denmark

17:26

how do you become your own thing given

17:28

where you're starting

17:29

that's the only thing that really needs

17:31

to be answered

17:34

um well the danes of course have quite a

17:36

connection to

17:38

scotland or the norwayians who came in

17:41

and threw macbeth out and

17:43

yeah but they've got a far bigger

17:45

connection to to germany i mean

17:47

you know they're a peninsula that's

17:48

stuck up in the german above the

17:50

hinterland of germany

17:51

there's a great book on there's a great

17:52

book on the danish economy from the

17:54

early 2000s by a guy called kyo the

17:56

person

17:57

um called the cooperative economy that

17:59

scots would do well to

18:00

to to to read it basically says the

18:02

reason denmark is rich and cooperative

18:05

isn't really it's social democratic

18:07

traditions or any of that it's the fact

18:09

that you've got 80 million germans up

18:10

your backside

18:12

and if you start fighting amongst

18:13

yourself there's nothing left

18:16

yes it's schleswig-holstein question no

18:19

indian times gone by

18:22

that was only understood by two people

18:24

and one of them were mad wasn't it that

18:25

was good

18:26

exactly

18:29

so it goes it goes um what

18:33

so how much um we don't want you to do

18:37

sophology and to make estimates about uh

18:40

what who in scotland wants independence

18:45

is there is is that is is there a

18:47

bourgeoisie

18:48

that's aiming to get out there and

18:50

rebuild the darian project or anything

18:52

like that

18:53

well there are i mean there definitely

18:54

are okay so so let's think about this

18:57

way

18:57

scotland likes to portray itself as this

18:59

left-wing alternative to the united

19:01

kingdom you know if you actually go look

19:03

at survey data in people's opinions

19:05

they're really not any different if you

19:07

had independence and you had a party

19:09

system

19:10

one-third of them would vote for the

19:11

local conservatives just as they do in

19:13

britain

19:14

right so elections are decided by small

19:16

margins not by giant blocks

19:18

so the first one is it's not that

19:20

different from anywhere else really

19:22

where it differs is in demography right

19:24

scotland is an

19:25

old place it's not a particularly

19:27

healthy place as we know as well which

19:29

also doesn't help

19:30

but if you think about age and assets

19:32

old people have all the money this is

19:34

not to say that all rich people are old

19:36

they are not right there many people are

19:37

all people

19:38

but if you want to find money you don't

19:40

find it with young people you find

19:41

assets with old people

19:43

over the lifetimes they've accumulated

19:44

houses pensions the area right all that

19:47

sort of stuff

19:48

so if you've got that and you're facing

19:50

an independence choice

19:51

you're thinking to yourself all right do

19:53

i want my pension paid with bank of

19:55

england bonds

19:56

or these new kilt edge securities

19:59

and if you haven't got rocks in your

20:00

head you might think to yourself well

20:02

hang on a minute

20:03

if they introduced it on currency it's

20:04

probably going to trade a lesser

20:06

multiple of parity it's not going to be

20:08

the same it's going to be a devaluation

20:10

which means if i've got a million pounds

20:12

of pension assets i might have

20:14

700 000 pounds but nominally a scottish

20:18

million

20:18

so the question becomes does that

20:20

scottish million in scotland

20:22

spend like a million or does it spend

20:24

like seven hundred thousand

20:25

and last time around when they did an

20:27

independent referendum you saw this in

20:28

the data it was the old

20:30

qua the people with assets who kind of

20:32

made that calculation and went i like

20:33

the status quo thanks very much

20:36

as those people slip the mortal coil

20:38

what you're finding is more and more

20:40

young people who are becoming

20:41

middle-aged are moving into the kind of

20:42

voting block

20:44

and the issue here is what statisticians

20:46

call a cohort effect

20:48

or a generational effect so the

20:50

generational effect is

20:52

churchill's maxim right so when you're

20:54

20 you should be a socialist

20:56

and when you're 40 you should be a

20:57

conservative do they all go through

21:00

their life cycle and do this right

21:01

is it in a sense a generation effect so

21:04

the people who are young who don't have

21:05

assets now

21:06

are going to want to stay with the union

21:08

once they get assets

21:10

or is it a cohort effect which is to say

21:12

that these people are just different

21:14

and they don't have assets they're not

21:15

going to accumulate them and even if

21:17

they do

21:17

they're going to still want independence

21:20

i think the evidence is beginning to

21:22

suggest that it's a cohort effect more

21:24

than a generation effect

21:25

which means that over time those people

21:27

are going to vote for it

21:28

but what's still driving this is the

21:30

fact that if you take a punt on zero

21:33

you can't really lose if you don't have

21:35

any assets you might as well vote for

21:37

the alternative because it's not as

21:38

you've got you're going to lose anything

21:40

right so that's the basis of your

21:42

independence coalition

21:44

now on top of that there are definitely

21:45

some of you know industrial people

21:47

financial people tech people in scotland

21:49

who are also in favor of this and think

21:51

it's a good move

21:53

um and there are other interested

21:55

parties as well

21:56

but there's that's basically how i think

21:59

about it base

21:59

it's it's demography plus assets kind of

22:02

explains the voting preferences

22:08

on returning exile scots making aliya to

22:12

get back to the homeland

22:14

uh well it depends the conditions under

22:16

what it's done under how it's done but i

22:18

certainly think that if it did happen

22:21

and you know there were certainly good

22:23

economic attacks incentives to

22:25

to to return yourself or your capital

22:28

then uh

22:28

it would happen and again it doesn't

22:30

have to be that much i mean go back to

22:31

the

22:32

it's two cities and four million people

22:34

right it doesn't

22:35

you're not you're not hanging out there

22:36

for a couple of trillion bucks right

22:39

a few billion banged here or they would

22:41

make a big difference

22:43

in back andrew carnegie all is forgiven

22:45

well not necessarily but you know

22:48

certainly fd greenfield fdi and the way

22:50

that ireland has done it i mean there's

22:52

a misconception in ireland is all just

22:54

about the 12 and a half percent

22:55

corporation tax i mean it was

22:57

but for the past 10 years since the

22:58

financial crisis is not it's real fdi

23:01

real jobs

23:02

real tech sector jobs etc in part

23:04

because they have the access to europe

23:06

but at the same time you know scotland

23:07

is not exactly devoid of resources

23:09

talent

23:10

skills etc etc it's a relatively low

23:12

cost

23:13

a place to exploit in the economic sense

23:16

and uh

23:17

it's got great proximity to europe and

23:19

also the united kingdom so

23:21

it's not hard in terms of human capital

23:24

the scots

23:26

used to have a reputation having a an

23:29

outstanding education system

23:30

has it survived 50 years of austerity

23:33

from the south

23:34

well i mean i haven't been in it for a

23:36

long time but certainly when i was back

23:38

there in the 1980s it was an excellent

23:40

undergraduate education

23:41

so much so that when i toured up at

23:43

north columbia university in the 1990s

23:45

and found myself sitting next to people

23:46

from

23:47

harvard and yale places i'd only ever

23:49

heard of in movies

23:50

uh far from being in awe i was

23:53

astonished that i'd read more than they

23:54

had

23:57

which is why i'm able to do what i do

23:59

today um so no i don't think it has

24:01

fallen i think the scottish education

24:02

system is actually still

24:04

one of the best in the world

24:05

particularly the undergraduate level

24:08

and this is a big selling point for

24:10

investment of course isn't this

24:12

well it's one selling point i mean

24:14

there's lots of other things in here

24:15

that are sort of misconceptions right so

24:17

what does scotland explore oil and

24:18

whiskey let's look at the whiskey sector

24:20

it's all owned by foreign companies it's

24:22

all owned by global multinationals

24:24

how does this affect scotland well you

24:26

get taxes and you can do tax revenue you

24:28

can

24:28

possibly push up a little bit on that

24:30

it's a take a few

24:32

bucks extra before people start drinking

24:34

rye whiskey over scotch whisky and mass

24:36

quantities

24:36

particularly in places like japan where

24:38

they can afford it right

24:40

so you can do this but this knocks on

24:41

another interesting list there's an old

24:43

friend of mine from dundee

24:45

who told me this one i i i was shocked

24:47

by this

24:48

you think about scotland's an

24:49

agricultural um place

24:52

and it is and you know i remember

24:53

growing up picking potatoes

24:55

the raspberry fields of blur gallery all

24:57

this sort of stuff but apparently

24:59

two-thirds of the biomass of scottish

25:00

crops is just barley

25:03

just because that's the whiskey industry

25:05

right this is what we grow

25:07

which goes into these into this industry

25:09

which is globally unique and competitive

25:11

but at the end of the day we don't

25:13

actually

25:13

own that stuff so whiskey most you know

25:17

you're going to nationalize the whiskey

25:18

lines i mean you know how do we think

25:20

about this

25:21

it's it's not just i mean education is

25:24

part of it

25:25

the fact that it buckets down the rain

25:27

all the time is actually kind of an

25:29

advantage because it seems that the

25:30

south of england is drying out

25:31

an interesting little factoid the the

25:33

big champagne houses of france so from

25:36

liam

25:37

uh have been buying up properties and

25:39

planting champagne vineyards and

25:41

kent i don't know if you've tried any of

25:43

the english champagnes in the past

25:45

couple of years

25:45

they're excellent because it's all

25:47

getting too hot where they are

25:49

and it's moving north right well the

25:51

thing is south of england where it all

25:53

generates all the

25:54

the gross value added etc is also drying

25:57

out

25:57

and scotland's getting wetter so why not

26:00

just build pipeline take those pipelines

26:02

for oil and just fill them with water

26:04

shove it down right again it's only four

26:06

million people how hard can it be

26:08

right you don't have you don't have to

26:09

support 40 million people right

26:11

wind right the place is windy as hell

26:14

right the technology is known

26:16

proven and cost effective batter up

26:18

hundreds of large-scale windmills and

26:20

just sell it into the english grid

26:22

why not right so there's lots of things

26:25

that can be done but it needs to be part

26:27

of a kind of

26:27

coherent plan of how to do it

26:30

so i mean what form would independence

26:33

take in sort of

26:35

political political economic terms i

26:37

mean how much extra

26:39

would this scots government in edinburgh

26:41

have to

26:42

what extra powers would it get that it

26:45

doesn't have now to do this

26:47

well it gets the right to do the most

26:48

important one in many ways despite me

26:51

poo pooing

26:51

a little earlier which is currency with

26:53

currency you have autonomy because

26:56

you can then devalue your currency which

26:58

is a good shock absorber of having a

27:00

crisis

27:01

you can kind of play with your own

27:03

interest rate so i'm skeptical

27:06

effective control of interest rates um

27:09

you

27:10

are able to build your own banks if they

27:12

have a financial crisis but the chances

27:14

are if you were independent they'd move

27:15

to london

27:16

because they'd want a better regulator a

27:18

bigger a better regulator

27:20

and also a bigger cushion which would

27:21

come with the bank of england rather

27:23

than bank of scotland so there's

27:24

there's issues there um you'd have

27:27

control over taxation

27:28

raising powers etc but most importantly

27:31

you get to choose what you want to spend

27:32

your stuff on

27:33

right just now yes scotland gets a lot

27:35

of money in transfers but also

27:36

contributes

27:37

through the general taxation to lots of

27:40

stuff in england that scotland wouldn't

27:42

need to do

27:43

like having an outsized military for

27:45

example

27:46

uh contributing to sort of international

27:49

public goods on the scale that

27:50

ain't that the united kingdom does so

27:52

there's lots of ways to like

27:55

the upkeep of government buildings all

27:56

over the united kingdom we

27:58

just wouldn't have to do that so you

27:59

could choose the most important thing is

28:01

that you would be able to choose

28:03

sort of brother the most important thing

28:05

is you'll be able to choose differently

28:06

what you want to spend that money on

28:08

and then also to create a different type

28:10

of environment in which to

28:12

get investors and companies to to invest

28:15

their capital and grow

28:18

um if anybody's out there that's got any

28:20

questions to

28:22

bring in which from whichever clan you

28:24

are wherever you glen

28:25

please send us out there's a couple on

28:26

here let's have a look

28:29

why don't scots have the right to be

28:30

governed by politicians elected by the

28:32

scots says jerry cassidy

28:34

oh jerry because it's a united kingdom

28:36

we are all one can

28:37

work one set of constituencies which

28:39

send mps to the

28:41

parliament in london and that has been

28:43

the case since the act of union back in

28:45

the early 1700s

28:47

so we also have a scottish government

28:49

and we can directly elect to the

28:51

scottish government

28:52

the scottish government has delegated

28:54

powers the way they think about this

28:56

it's a bit like sending is it like the

28:58

difference between sending senators to

29:00

dc and having state senators in albany

29:02

right so think about it that way

29:04

currently we have a kind of albany set

29:06

up we'd like to have the dc

29:07

set up michael o'hare's question is very

29:11

relevant uh

29:12

you know the the the the relationship of

29:15

the uk

29:15

with the eu and uh whether scotland

29:18

would be allowed to rejoin the eu with

29:20

the political constraints i mentioned

29:22

about

29:23

spanish and antipathy to secessionist

29:26

movements

29:26

etc uh and uh

29:30

whether this could be contingent i mean

29:32

would it be a two-stage

29:34

question do you want independence with

29:37

or without

29:37

european union so the eu one is

29:41

fascinating in multiple levels so yes

29:43

you know the spanish don't want scotland

29:45

to come in because it suggests catalonia

29:47

can do the same and

29:48

breaks it up etc right and there's also

29:50

the stuff about the security council as

29:52

you correctly

29:53

it right i mean can you really be one of

29:55

the big five

29:56

when you basically lose 10 percent

29:58

thereabouts of your gdp

30:00

you might even slip out of the g7 right

30:02

so you know it's not actually that

30:03

you're no longer a big player

30:05

um the eu once complicated by another

30:07

one though the eu is basically a giant

30:10

exporter block run by the germans i

30:12

don't mean this in any

30:14

snide or shorthanded way i mean if you

30:16

basically look at the economic model of

30:17

the eu

30:18

since the financial crisis you've got

30:20

countries in eastern europe which don't

30:22

join the euro but

30:23

shadow it closely and basically are the

30:25

parts suppliers

30:26

to the german auto and mittelstand

30:28

export complex

30:30

then you've got the danes and swedes

30:32

that are part of that as high quality

30:33

exporters

30:34

and then the whole thing goes out into

30:36

the global economy and sold to the

30:37

americans the chinese and everybody else

30:39

southern europe is the problem southern

30:41

europe italy hasn't grown for 20 years

30:43

france has massive

30:45

debt to gdp constraints and taxation

30:47

constraints

30:48

i don't know not massive but serious

30:50

ones they spend a lot through the state

30:52

already

30:53

uh the growth rates are low uh

30:55

historically the united kingdom grows

30:56

faster than the eu average

30:58

so what is it you're joining well if

31:01

you're

31:02

10 years down the line and we go down

31:04

the path of austerity too

31:06

if the germans have their way and it's

31:08

all about belt tightening and back to

31:10

the 60 percent debt to gdp

31:12

and all this sort of stuff what means

31:14

post pandemic southern europe is going

31:16

to have

31:16

another round of austerity another round

31:18

of high unemployment

31:19

and then another round of political

31:21

volatility and this time

31:22

it's probably not going to survive in

31:24

its current form

31:26

so you would hope that they know this

31:27

i'm not convinced that they do

31:29

but we'll see if on the other hand it's

31:31

all eu next gen funds

31:33

common debt instruments let's loosen the

31:36

fiscal constraints

31:37

then that's one that scotland can live

31:38

with but if the price of joining is that

31:40

scotland has to take what will

31:42

effectively be an eight percent deficit

31:44

and about 120

31:45

debt to gdp in their state of the

31:47

british national debt

31:48

and then basically join the eu and

31:51

massively contract and have a huge

31:53

recession for the price

31:55

that's going to be a hell of a hard sell

31:57

right that's going to be a very very

31:59

tough sell

32:00

do you then approach it from the point

32:01

of view of scotland actually doesn't

32:03

have any national debt here's an

32:04

interesting one

32:05

today i don't know if you know this one

32:08

not many people know this one

32:10

uh outside the weird circuits of people

32:12

who trade bonds

32:13

um you can't change the counterparty on

32:15

a bond so scotland becomes independent

32:17

it literally has no national debt

32:19

right you you can't inherit it really

32:21

you'd have to voluntarily

32:23

offer to give a payment in kind to the

32:26

bank of england every year

32:28

to service your share of the debt as

32:31

some kind of proportion of gdp or income

32:33

or per capita or something like this

32:35

right um

32:36

and it's done that's been done with many

32:38

other countries getting independence

32:40

doesn't it

32:41

yeah exactly right in a situation where

32:44

scotland plays hardball and just because

32:45

now we're not going to do that we're

32:47

just going to walk out we're going to

32:48

effectively default on english debt

32:50

and walk into the eu with no debt well i

32:52

mean if you start your life with a

32:53

voluntary default don't expect creditors

32:55

to be nice to you

32:58

right so you know it's superficially

33:01

attractive but

33:02

it is i mean you know the thing is do

33:04

you want to join the eu depends on which

33:06

version of the eu you have

33:08

which version of the eu you think will

33:09

be there in five or ten years

33:11

is it going to be a german uh middle

33:14

stand export oriented

33:16

sparring culture tighten your belts and

33:19

have no deficit to see you

33:20

if it is going to be a hell of a hard

33:22

place for for for

33:24

the scots to exist for them

33:27

kristin patterson from the national

33:29

laser

33:30

an interesting question that broadens

33:32

out who is the us and international

33:34

community listening to most boris

33:36

johnson

33:37

nicola sturgeon or someone else it's

33:39

interesting that yeah i think that

33:40

nicola sturge has actually

33:42

got a place on the world stage that you

33:44

would not necessarily have expected the

33:47

more so than say the catalonian leaders

33:49

or even to some extent than the cost of

33:51

our leaders

33:52

i think that's absolutely right i think

33:53

she's played a blinder in terms of the

33:55

kind of media strategy on this

33:57

the 2014 uh referendum of course really

34:01

put her on the map taking over from

34:03

salmon after the campaign

34:04

and you know the scottish government

34:06

itself for like as many ways it can be

34:08

criticized as all governments can be

34:10

criticized

34:10

but as you see from the most recent

34:12

returns it's very popular the scots like

34:15

it they like her they like what she's

34:16

doing

34:17

and you know she came across during the

34:19

covered pandemic somebody who is very

34:21

much

34:21

in control listening to the science

34:24

knows what's going on etc

34:26

uh and that you know that helps you know

34:28

particularly when basically

34:29

if you look across the atlantic you had

34:31

trump and then you get boris who's sort

34:33

of like you know

34:34

posh version of trump basically with

34:36

slightly less

34:37

racist edges and uh you know racist in

34:40

latin it doesn't count

34:41

that's right exactly and then she she

34:44

you know she

34:45

looks good in reflection to that but the

34:48

deeper question that christina is asking

34:50

i think is important

34:51

is who's listening to this right

34:53

nationalists think everyone's listening

34:55

to this that this is somehow

34:56

the most important question in the world

34:58

right and it's not

35:00

most people in the world don't care

35:02

scotland is a tiny place

35:04

and it's got hardly any people and it's

35:06

part of the uk

35:08

and for the rest of the world we'll

35:09

probably be happy if it all just went

35:11

away because it's one less thing to

35:12

worry about right

35:13

the really interesting thing is who's

35:15

going to care

35:16

if it happens right if it happens will

35:20

be decided

35:20

internally to britain but what matters

35:23

externally is

35:24

if it happens how does it affect

35:25

everybody else start with nukes

35:28

go through currency go down the list

35:31

but you've been in the states now for

35:33

several decades um

35:34

do you see any signs of of an american

35:37

scots lobby to match the irish american

35:40

lobby

35:40

in its blind and fervent nationalism

35:44

well no because a lot of that was the

35:46

fact that irishman

35:47

scots immigration went originally to the

35:49

carolinas in the 17th and 18th century

35:52

and then to canada more than the united

35:55

states in many ways although there are

35:56

many many scholars americans

35:58

there's a scottish american foundation

35:59

which does great work networking all the

36:01

different scottish american institutions

36:03

which are around

36:04

there are some andrews societies all

36:06

over the place that are actually like

36:07

very well healed and well connected etc

36:10

so you know there are people there that

36:12

are interested

36:13

and you know invested in all senses the

36:16

word

36:17

um so you know there are networks to

36:19

draw upon

36:20

put it that way um you know

36:24

but you don't see them having a sort of

36:26

crucial effect

36:28

raising political support and uh finance

36:32

you're not going to get a three billion

36:33

dollars a year in scotland

36:35

well if you think about the archetypal

36:37

thing of

36:38

north catholic irish descent

36:42

american politicians being able to

36:44

directly influence the brits over

36:46

policies over northern ireland at the

36:48

time the troubles right

36:49

scotland's not really in that situation

36:52

it's not that kind of literally life or

36:54

death struggle and i hope that it never

36:56

becomes dark

36:57

and it also isn't ethnicized in the same

36:59

way that was

37:01

so i think that sort of the cadences

37:03

that made that type of politicization

37:06

possible

37:10

now with scott you mentioned that that

37:12

was very interesting i think that

37:14

the scots nationalists have been very

37:17

clever

37:17

in the inclusion of

37:20

you know you've got scott's nationalists

37:23

wearing turbans

37:24

you've got discussions that's a great

37:26

that guy

37:27

the guy with the turban and the flag in

37:28

2014 what an image i mean it's just yeah

37:32

i mean we're in scotland where scots and

37:34

that's been welcomed but it's also been

37:36

suggested by

37:37

some scots friends of mine that

37:41

this is uh somewhat the icing on the

37:44

cake that in fact there is a hard core

37:46

of

37:46

nasty bigoted nationalism at the bottom

37:49

of it all which

37:50

might under these circumstances

37:52

unintended consequences

37:54

rise to the rise to the top well let me

37:57

two examples so a couple of weeks ago

38:00

there was this

38:00

um as they'd say in scotland where

38:04

the immigration police who operate with

38:06

a mandate to operate in scotland from

38:08

london but are not empowered by the

38:10

scottish government

38:11

basically drive up to the south side of

38:13

glasgow to pollock shields

38:14

and bundle a couple of guys into a van

38:16

and basically say your immigration

38:18

status is revoked you're out of the

38:19

country

38:20

and the whole street turned out and then

38:22

activists showed up and the next thing

38:24

it was two thousand people and suddenly

38:25

got under the van to stop at driving and

38:27

all this sort of stuff and basically the

38:28

police at the back down

38:29

and that is like one side of what the

38:31

scottish political community is like

38:33

now what it was about a week before

38:35

rangers won the league

38:37

uh the glasgow football you should

38:39

explain to people that rangers tend to

38:41

be associated

38:42

with northern ireland protestantism

38:45

david mcwilliams who who you might know

38:48

has a brilliant phrase for this

38:49

he calls the ideology of the rangers

38:52

fans and the scottish protestant

38:54

community

38:55

aerostats airship which i just think is

38:58

fabulous like this idea of sort of

39:00

greater protestantism being spread you

39:03

know

39:03

um to get back to the story right so

39:06

basically enters the protestant club

39:07

celtics the catholic club celtic we're

39:09

about to get 10 championships in a row

39:12

it's a very two horse

39:13

and ranger stopped him and despite

39:15

covert and everything all the rangers

39:17

fun came out

39:18

with their union jacks not their

39:20

soldiers and they went to george square

39:22

the big show in glasgow and they had a

39:23

riot as football fans were going to do

39:25

and they all got drunk and they sung

39:28

really offensive anti-catholic songs etc

39:31

now guess what these are two sides of

39:32

your political community

39:34

just like anything right you go down to

39:36

england to watch the england team

39:37

against the

39:38

ukraine uh at the end of the week right

39:40

you'll find the ugly

39:42

face of brexit and you'll find a really

39:44

nice side of england as well

39:45

the scots are no different in this

39:47

regard

39:49

but reassuring

39:53

it's like you know if you want to find

39:55

american communists

39:57

you can't if you want to find american

40:00

bigots

40:00

you can't it's a big country say you

40:02

think so

40:04

it's the same now we have one friend

40:07

from

40:08

aidan stephen brays do you think

40:10

scottish independence is an

40:12

inevitability

40:13

and what would be the worst or case

40:14

scenario you've covered some of this

40:16

before but feel free to summarize again

40:19

well i mean they're taking a different

40:20

direction rather than summarize a lot of

40:22

time left i mean

40:23

i do think it's an inevitability because

40:25

of the demographic

40:27

so i think that essentially those those

40:29

young people who really want it now like

40:31

72 percent of the votes 75

40:34

of the vote people under 40 uh want

40:36

independence i don't think our number's

40:38

going to tail off

40:39

so simply by the virtue of electoral

40:42

arithmetic

40:43

eventually they're going to say we're

40:45

done that's

40:46

it uh it's you know as i said it's a

40:48

cohort effect rather than a sort of you

40:49

know generational effect

40:51

so that's your inevitability in there

40:53

now so what's the best case for this the

40:55

best case for this

40:56

is the scottish government's about to do

40:58

some planning

40:59

it's been on hold because of covert they

41:01

want to just make sure that that's all

41:03

sorted out there's no talk really of

41:05

independence or second referendums at

41:06

the moment and wherever they fell down

41:08

last time

41:09

was all the hand waving about the

41:11

economy oh we'll have the pound and

41:13

we'll do this and we'll do oil and we'll

41:15

have low taxes and all just everything

41:17

and nobody believed it because it was

41:18

just this bag of stuffs

41:20

randomly from together and when you've

41:23

had 300 years of economic integration

41:25

you kind of have to do the hard work of

41:27

stopping and going

41:28

all right what does a scottish economy

41:30

actually really look like

41:32

if it were independent tomorrow what

41:34

would be our globally competitive sector

41:36

right what should we invest in to get us

41:40

to a better place in terms of our

41:41

independent economic strength and how

41:43

would we create

41:44

with that wealth a more just and fair

41:47

and open and equitable society

41:49

and if you take that project seriously

41:52

and give it the kind of brain power and

41:54

effort that it needs

41:55

to to do it to the best you can and and

41:57

then basically get people on board in

41:59

the context of doing that

42:01

then that's a good scenario right that's

42:03

a good place because from there

42:05

again i'll quote david mc williams right

42:08

the great thing about independence is

42:09

it's yours to screw up

42:11

and if you've got a good plan there's

42:12

less chance of screwing up

42:14

even though nothing ever really goes to

42:16

plan to quote gary clark the scottish

42:18

songwriter

42:19

um so that would be a good one the bad

42:22

one would be

42:23

to get militant nationalists on it to

42:25

essentially say

42:27

all right we're going to have a

42:28

referendum because we feel the window's

42:29

shutting

42:30

we're going to just over 51 52

42:34

and we're going to declare independence

42:36

and we don't really have a plan

42:38

that way you've got half the country

42:39

really doesn't want to go there

42:41

you'll have massive capital flight out

42:43

of scotland as people try and protect

42:44

their assets

42:46

there will be no time to readjust

42:49

contracts expectations anything like

42:51

that

42:51

economically it would be very damaging

42:53

in and of itself but most importantly

42:55

politically

42:56

you just wouldn't bring the people with

42:57

you and trying to do independence under

42:59

those conditions is a really bad idea

43:03

now i mean this is one of the

43:04

difficulties with referenda and why the

43:07

dictator's choice you give people a

43:09

spurious binary

43:11

yes or no solution independence or no

43:14

independence

43:14

and then you retire to the one percent

43:17

so i mean

43:18

if you're going to do this should there

43:19

be some form of super majority

43:21

should there be graded questions like

43:23

you know uh

43:25

autonomy plus independence with uh and

43:29

and grade the questions and then looking

43:31

at this

43:32

month's this week's new york election

43:34

results what's happened to greater

43:36

choice questions

43:38

if

43:48

um so yeah i mean you you point to the

43:51

real issues with this i mean

43:52

in a sense it is a binary choice right

43:55

you can't be half pregnant

43:57

right if you want to go for independence

43:59

you're doing it by degree

44:00

is it a wee bit independent are we but

44:02

more independent or is it fully

44:03

independent well that depends on what

44:05

you think that means

44:06

you know at the end of the day it's a

44:08

question of well what is it you mean

44:10

full monetary political sovereignty okay

44:13

well how does that work when 60

44:15

of your exports still go to the rest of

44:16

the united kingdom right you're just not

44:18

sovereign in that sense

44:19

so again i just go back to the same sort

44:22

of point which is

44:23

scotland needs a compass it needs to

44:26

figure out exactly who it is

44:27

what it does in the world what it needs

44:29

to stop doing in the world what it needs

44:31

to do better in the world

44:32

and then sell that to the scottish

44:34

people and go look here's

44:36

here's the best here's here's what we

44:38

can say and and my

44:40

belief on this and it is a belief

44:41

because that i haven't done that work

44:43

and i it's a big job um is that you can

44:47

do it but it's basically it's a

44:49

generational challenge if you

44:50

let's take the example of ireland again

44:52

oh quote mcwilliams

44:54

mick williams referred to ireland's

44:56

period of independence from the end of

44:58

the civil war

44:59

through joining the eu as i think he

45:01

called it the taliban years

45:04

where they were basically run by this

45:05

catholic theocracy

45:07

and the biggest export that ireland made

45:09

was was labourers going to london

45:12

i mean it was it was not a good time

45:13

when it was nautical

45:15

and valera declared economic war on

45:17

britain and yeah

45:19

that was where you go there right

45:22

so you know so basically the hard time

45:24

right the way through to the to the

45:25

1970s

45:26

and you know that's partly ideologically

45:29

driven

45:30

partly because just the capital stock of

45:32

ireland was so crap given sort of his

45:34

colonial legacy of

45:36

dealing with england etc there's lots of

45:37

reasons for it the catholic theology was

45:40

really right the theocracy i should say

45:42

scotland doesn't have any of that stuff

45:43

it doesn't need a 50-year drag but it

45:45

does need a 20-year period of getting

45:47

from a to b

45:48

and that's going to come with costs if

45:50

it is to be meaningful

45:52

you can have all the independence you

45:53

want if at the end of the day nothing

45:54

really changes you just change the brass

45:56

plates in edinburgh

45:57

and i think they want more than that so

45:59

the question is well how do you get from

46:01

there to there you need a plan

46:03

at the moment uh jamie mckinson points

46:06

out the pandemic uh

46:08

is it going to dampen or foment

46:12

independence because certainly the scots

46:14

government radiates

46:16

uh a presumption of competence

46:19

which is sadly missing in london i mean

46:22

but at the same time it's a dreadful

46:24

thing to be left on your own

46:25

if you're a small country faced with a

46:27

global epidemic

46:29

that shows no signs of um withdrawing

46:32

completely

46:33

and jamie's exactly right on this so you

46:35

know would scotland have had access so

46:38

quickly to so many doses

46:39

of the vaccine if it was independence or

46:42

would england have prioritized its own

46:44

population like everybody else does

46:46

there are costs with independence as

46:48

well as benefits right

46:50

so how would you pay for all those

46:52

vaccines if you have no marketing power

46:54

you have no purchasing power you're not

46:56

a large enough economy to do a deal

46:59

that actually is reasonably good with

47:01

these pharma companies

47:02

again there are costs as well as

47:04

benefits

47:06

i think in terms of the pandemic yes you

47:08

know nicola looks confident in the

47:10

barcelona boris because boris looks like

47:12

he sleeps in a box overnight

47:13

so it's not exactly hard to look calm

47:15

because he's probably opened the lid

47:16

every morning i think

47:18

well it springs out right got in a box

47:20

but

47:21

you know cynicism and jokes apart i mean

47:23

you know that's the point of comparison

47:25

but what we're seeing now is

47:26

britain was doing great three months ago

47:28

right it was the vaccine rollout was

47:30

going fabulous the nhs was just the

47:32

the cats whiskers again and then the

47:35

delta variant shows up in part because

47:37

of that stupid trade deal with india so

47:39

they wouldn't shut the door

47:40

but nonetheless it's there now and we're

47:42

not sure how that's going to play out

47:44

and that's also going to hurt scotland

47:45

scotland actually now has the highest

47:46

rate of infection in the united kingdom

47:48

i believe

47:49

so you can you know you can look

47:51

confident but you're not actually able

47:52

to control these things so

47:54

i'm not sure which way the pandemic or

47:56

the long run plays out because we're not

47:58

out of the pandemic yet by any means

48:01

i mean the other parts looking at the

48:03

sturgeon and the scots nationalist

48:05

government is that

48:06

they are efficiently administering

48:10

british central government funds and

48:12

programs

48:13

which the british central government is

48:15

too incompetent to do something

48:18

well i mean it's not quite too

48:19

incompetent to do so i mean

48:21

you know are they that competent

48:22

themselves i'm sure you can find lots of

48:24

critiques by the scottish labour party

48:26

for example of where the snp does and

48:28

does not spend money on what it chooses

48:30

to focus on

48:31

so um yeah i mean you know they're

48:33

competent in the sense that they have an

48:34

electoral majority behind them that

48:36

seems to be relatively pleased with

48:37

where they are

48:38

but let's not forget that for all their

48:40

incompetence you know the tories

48:42

increased their vote share and increase

48:43

their majority

48:44

particularly in the areas that were most

48:46

hurt by tory policies

48:48

well that comes on to i think what could

48:50

be almost our

48:52

segway out of here is uh the missing

48:54

factor this you

48:56

you've we've mentioned in passing

48:57

because this is very much

48:59

on poisson was the mighty scottish

49:02

labour party that gave the world

49:04

john smith robin cook gordon brown

49:07

many of the leading labour politicians

49:09

and now they barely make a town council

49:12

in scotland

49:14

i'm armed in the united kingdom in

49:15

general i mean you know there's a

49:17

political scientist uh um i kind of

49:20

can't believe i'm blanking on his name

49:22

now he's at essex um

49:24

i can't remember anyway he wrote a piece

49:26

recently which i think summed up it says

49:28

you know

49:28

what's the labour party for if you've

49:31

got to a world whereby the tories

49:33

because of the pandemic and

49:34

simply because in a sense they're a bit

49:36

bored with the old

49:37

doing austerity getting pelters for it

49:40

and not really being rewarded for it

49:42

they've discovered in a world of

49:43

hyperloop super low inflation and super

49:45

low structurally low interest rates

49:47

that you can spend money and bond prices

49:49

don't go

49:50

kitty up and you don't end up with a

49:52

huge yield spike you can spend a lot of

49:54

money

49:54

so they've moved to the left

49:55

economically they haven't done anything

49:57

in terms of leveling up but at least it

49:59

sounds good

50:00

so rhetorically at least then

50:02

economically in some areas they move to

50:03

the left

50:04

in line with your average british voter

50:06

they've actually moved to the right

50:08

culturally

50:09

in terms of having very cosmopolitan

50:11

preferences and

50:12

freedom of immigration and so on and so

50:15

forth which the labour party has come to

50:17

uh embody um trans rights etc etc

50:21

the euromedian voter in britain really

50:23

isn't too fond of this stuff

50:24

so they've become natural conservative

50:26

voters as the parties just moved to a

50:28

position to capture all those voters

50:30

when you do that what is the labour

50:32

party for it's for basically

50:34

people who are left libertarian

50:37

individualists

50:38

socialists and social democrats who live

50:40

in cities

50:41

tend to be on public employment and have

50:44

higher education

50:45

you cannot win an election with that

50:47

that's not a coalition

50:48

especially when you're being led by

50:50

neo-liberals well yeah exactly but you

50:53

know irony compounds

50:54

but nonetheless i mean that's where the

50:56

labour party finds itself so

50:57

you know the mark goodwin is the guy's

51:00

name that's a

51:00

good one um worth reading his stuff on

51:03

bruh

51:04

um basically he's just i think he's got

51:06

it right basically the tories

51:08

a bit trump in a way trump didn't form a

51:11

coalition so much as find one that was

51:13

just waiting to be

51:13

recognized and i think boris has done

51:15

the same thing

51:17

the the traditional social concerns of

51:19

northern labour wars

51:20

are not the same thing as metropolitan

51:23

educated

51:24

people under 30. and he's happy to take

51:26

them on board and that's what he's quite

51:28

successfully done

51:29

so labour party everywhere is in trouble

51:32

okay um we're almost coming towards the

51:35

end has anybody got a final question

51:38

to someone sum this all up

51:41

they want to give a rendition of flowers

51:44

of scotland

51:46

as i said i'm not an emotional

51:48

nationalist i'm a private

51:52

okay well yeah but one question which is

51:55

very difficult sometimes you know i work

51:57

at the u.n

51:58

and i've tried to explain to um various

52:01

colleagues whether they're techs or

52:03

russians or chinese

52:05

but if scotland were to dec

52:09

where to declare independence there's no

52:11

conceivable way a british government in

52:13

westminster

52:14

would intervene militarily to stop it

52:16

happening

52:18

yeah that's right the chinese don't get

52:20

this for fairly obvious reasons

52:22

some people care about territorial

52:24

integrity more than others

52:25

um it's you know it's an interesting one

52:28

in the sense that if you think about the

52:29

spanish reaction to

52:31

session right so they basically declare

52:33

we're going to have a vote because you

52:34

told us we couldn't

52:35

we think the vote is binding all right

52:37

eventually we'll track you down for

52:38

under paul warren's will throw you in

52:40

jail

52:41

right that's a very very different

52:43

reaction to

52:45

well i guess if you do it you do it and

52:47

that's it and i think that what that

52:48

speaks to is two things

52:50

so long as they don't really have to

52:51

worry about parking the nuclear weapons

52:54

and the solent

52:55

right they can probably live with it but

52:58

secondly because of the fact of scotland

53:00

is dee

53:00

jury if not they fought well not was

53:03

they factor not the jury independent

53:05

to a large degree through the scottish

53:07

government

53:08

then in a sense it's not part of the

53:10

westminster

53:11

imaginary again i really you talk to

53:14

english stories and they talk about the

53:15

north they're not talking about glasgow

53:18

right it's just not and the scottish

53:20

conservative party is you know

53:21

functionally dead in many ways you know

53:24

you still pick up 30 of the votes but

53:26

you never get any representation

53:28

right that's the nature of the system so

53:31

what do you end up with you know you end

53:33

up with a world in which kind of i think

53:35

the separation's already happened

53:36

it just needs to be formalized okay well

53:40

with that uh i wouldn't say a

53:42

possibility

53:43

how would a pragmatic yes

53:48

conclusion well thank you

53:52

thank you very much indeed mark thank

53:54

you everybody for being here

53:56

jamie get ready

54:36

you