I've published many blog posts on the SNP and their blatant hypocrisy when it comes to their welfare powers, my hope has always been that as we start to accept and understand the powers that we have the media, nationalist activists and others will ask the question: why are we not doing more about poverty in Scotland.
The trouble is the SNP spin machine is very good at obfuscating, many people do not even realise the extent of the powers that we have, or just switch to handwringing with some of the weakest excuses you can find.
Why should we?
Top of that list of excuses has to be 'why should we?'
Why should you look after people in poverty?
Why should you look after hungry kids?
Why should you stop the humiliation of vulnerable women with the rape clause?
The obvious answer is of course... cause it's the right thing to do!
But if you are asking these questions then you just don't deserve to call yourself a progressive, just understand that you are using the pain and suffering of these people as a tool in a cynical political game to dupe people into thinking nationalism is a solution when it clearly is not.
The SNP & welfare benefits in 2021
But as more direct power and budget accrue to the SNP it's getting harder to justify this 'why should we' position.
We saw this with the £20 'cut' to Universal Credit (I know it's technically a reversal of an increase but few people on Universal Credit will appreciate such pedantry). This is a cut that the SNP could have reversed for Scotland if they so wished. I was genuinely intrigued if this was going to be a feature of the 2021 budget having followed an interesting piece of analysis by the Scottish Government in June of this year.
"the estimated impact on reserved benefit expenditure of a) retaining the £20 per-week uplift to Universal Credit and Working Tax Credit, and b) removing the Benefit Cap and the two-child limit and reinstating the family element."
In my experience this was quite a shift for the SNP. Normally we would just hear 'wicked Tories' or the like, but this was a bit of detailed analysis which clearly would lead to more questions.
In this analysis we see that the cost of ending the two child cap and rape clause is £116M and the cost of ending the universal credit cut is £461M, more of that later.
Normally I would have to drag these figures out of the Scottish Government in the teeth of an FOI, but now suddenly the SNP are freely giving up this data. So I was intrigued, what was going on, and were they preparing to finally use their welfare powers and effect substantive change.
Well as we saw in the budget, clearly not!
Good job I still submitted an FOI to try and get to the bottom of this.
Inside the SNP spin machine
My latest FOI shows us much of the thinking of the SNP, I was wanting to understand the thinking and analysis that was going on inside the Scottish Government with respect to the Universal Credit cut, I got a bit more than that.
First we see a bit of panic about actual 'what are you (the SNP) going to do about this' questions put to the Scottish Government. Which is remarkable progress on where we were a few years ago when these welfare powers were hardly acknowledged.
But it's on page 5 that we really see the panic starting to form:
"As I mentioned on the phone, a caller on BBC Radio Scotland’s Mornings with Kaye Adams phone-in stated that “Nicola Sturgeon knew the £20 UC uplift was only temporary and would end. She has the legal power, under devolution to reverse this decision by increasing income tax.” Please could I get a response to the statement that the Scottish Government has the power to keep the additional £20 a week Universal Credit uplift. "
This is bad, not only do we have MSPs asking about welfare powers we're now seeing members of the public in call in shows asking why Nicola isn't doing anything about it. It's quite clear that the 'don't mention the powers' line was starting to fall apart.
What you can see as the agreed spin line is hugely revealing:
"Colleagues
Thank you all for turning this around so quickly. For awareness, we issued the statement below, referencing FM’s comments from interviews she conducted on Monday, as well as the background note.
First Minister’s comments on UC uplift withdrawal:
We have a limited devolved budget – common sense tells you that we cannot keep dipping into a devolved budget that’s there to pay for health and education, limited social security and to mitigate the impact of cuts in reserved benefits.
Common sense tells you that however much we’d love to be able to do that, it simply isn’t possible to do.
This is a decision of the UKG – it is a morally indefensible decision.
It’s going to push thousands of people into poverty. It’s going to leave many parents unable to feed their children.
Over the weekend, I joined with the First Ministers of Wales and Northern Ireland – quite an unusual step – to call on the Prime Minister not to go ahead with this cut. Let’s keep the focus where it should be – on the politicians and the UK Government making this cut.
They’re the ones with the power and the resources to stop it and that’s where our focus should continue to be.
Background
• The cost of the Scottish Government mitigating the UK Government’s cut is not sustainable. Our analysis indicates that it would cost over £460 million per year by 2023/24 to cover the cost of the £20-per-week cut.
• We work within a fixed budget and do not have borrowing powers or other powers that would allow us to fully tackle poverty including social security and employment"
The first lines tell you a lot, within half an hour of the Call Kaye question they were in a huddle trying to spin their way out of it.
What they come up with tells you so much more:
"We have a limited budget"
So what? So do all governments! There is always a finite pool of resources so this is nothing new, however it does dog whistle to those that like to pretend that it's not the SNP Government that set that "limited" budget, but that it's a fixed budget from Westminster - this is doubled down in the second background footnote. So it's gives you a flavour of what's to come.
"Common sense" is used twice in quick succession.
This is a typical Sturgeon spin device. The insertion of 'common sense' is an attempt to suggest that the SNP Government increasing welfare is ridiculous and should be treated with contempt.
"mitigate cuts in reserved benefits"
Another useful device in the context of a 'fixed budget' it's implying that the poor old Scottish Government will need to make cuts to essential services to stop cuts which are all Westminster's fault.
"We'd love to be able to do that"
This is an overreach. Let's pause for a second, the whole build up has been to set up that it's the 'fault of the English Tories in Westminster' the horrible people that 'fix' the Scottish budget and it would 'force Nicola to have to sack nurses and teachers if she was going to do this'. But now we get the phrase the SNP would 'love' to end these welfare cuts, but they can't.
The trouble is, saying 'we'd love to, but we can't' when you absolutely can is about as close to cruel rhetoric as it's possible to get.
"This is a decision of the UKG"
Yes, but as we've established it's also a decision you can take if you want to. This is a hopeful attempt to get the focus back on the UK and away from the SNP's welfare powers.
" It’s going to push thousands of people into poverty. It’s going to leave many parents unable to feed their children. "
" They’re the ones with the power and the resources to stop it and that’s where our focus should continue to be. "
The gameplan is almost shouted out here. The "focus" needs to be on Westminster, the "focus" needs to be off the SNP. The SNP don't want to looking at them and their welfare powers, you need to look elsewhere!
So whilst we in Scotland can do something about this, please stop asking us and focus your attention somewhere else.
We're no longer talking about denial of welfare powers, this is just cynical politics.
We would love to do something, we'd love to stop the kids from starving, but common sense will tell you that we can't (even though we absolutely can) so please stop looking at us as I can't look you in the eye anymore.
If you'd really love to...
The trouble for the SNP is that they don't have the kind of fixed budget that they imply. They decide on their final budget, no one else. The tax and spend decisions within the Scottish Budget are voted on by the Scottish Parliament not by Westminster.
There are lots of opportunities to increase revenue such as income tax or land tax, but they also have many other options such as a carbon tax, a land based wealth tax or an inheritance tax at their disposal.
Similarly the SNP Government have just allocated £350M to an independence referendum (amongst other areas in culture and external affairs) .
As we now know, thanks to their analysis from earlier this year, that could end the rape clause and family cap plus 50% of the cost of the Universal Credit cut for that money.
Now you might say that the £350M on a referendum et al is the right choice for that money. And you are entitled to that opinion, but just remember, from your own rhetoric, you are saying that you are happy to "push thousands of people into poverty" and "leave many parents unable to feed their children."
After that you might stick to your guns, and fair play to you if you do, but you need to own your decision and that is one that can only be described as cruel.
To govern is to choose. So sorry Nicola, as much as you'd love me to, I won't be taking my focus off your welfare decisions.
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