Not in our backyard! 'Building a new Scotland'

The Scottish Government has finally published its long awaited immigration paper titled Building a new Scotland, suffice to say my hopes weren't high and my low expectations were met in full. 

I've been banging on about demographics and immigration for a long time now and I did hope that somehow the Scottish Government would confront this issue with this paper. But they've ducked it all as usual, creating a puff piece that they hope no one will read critically. 

Let's start with the positives, such as they are. The paper outlines the same old apple pie of a more prosperous, fair and sustainable country after independence. It recognises the key theme that there is a need for a more open and welcoming immigration policy that reflects Scotland’s interests. It also argues that this would also reflect Scottish values, but more on that a little later. 

The document argues that immigration is essential for Scotland’s economic growth (it is), demographic balance (absolutely is), social cohesion and cultural diversity (window dressing). 

It goes out of its way to emphasise that Scotland has a different attitude towards immigration than the rest of the UK, and that Scots are more supportive of welcoming people from different backgrounds and countries. It also asserts that the current UK system is not fit for Scotland’s needs and aspirations, so all the flag waving that we are used to. 

However, a closer look at the data shows a really uncomfortable truth. A majority of Scots don't want more immigration! As ever there is a significant gap between the rhetoric and the reality. The paper even tries to hide the evidence that contradicts its claims, and relies on misleading and selective data to support its arguments.

One of the main problems with the document is that it ignores the public opinion on immigration in Scotland. The document cites various surveys and polls that assert that Scots are more positive and tolerant towards immigration than the rest of the UK, but fails to mention that at best all these are showing is a smaller majority of Scots do not want more immigration when compared to English attitudes. 

For example, the Scottish 'pro-immigration' case can be seen in Table 1. 

Great emphasis is placed on the MPS attitudes survey, and then compared to the UK wide surveys. At first glance, it does look like there is a much more positive attitude towards immigration in Scotland. 

But a second glance tells a much more uncomfortable story. 

Firstly, even on the cherry picked, MPS survey (more on that later), it shows Scots firmly against higher levels of immigration. 

Secondly, it's rather odd that the MPS survey has no 'don't knows' whilst the others do not! Well of course it's not strange when you realise that the MPS survey was cherry picked and we are comparing cherries with oranges. 

Dig a little further and you can also see that the script used for the MPS survey was a "dog whistle" to nationalists. It might as well have said 'we think the Scots are different from the English when it comes to immigration, don't you agree?'

Of course the problem for the Scottish Government is that there are ready, at hand, comparisons of Scotland and the UK on these questions. For example, the sub-samples of the Ipos poll cited in the table show that Scottish attitudes on a like for like basis are far less progressive than that of London and generally in line with that of the UK. 

Furthermore anyone wanting to look at this topic could just go to YouGov and review the monthly tracker polls for immigration for Scotland and the UK. Whilst Scotland is a sub-sample, you can chain the results (in this case over 6 months), to get a representative sample over time. 

The point being that Scotland does appear to have a slightly more welcoming attitude towards immigrants than England, but the difference is tiny and a SUBSTANTIAL majority of Scots are not in favour of higher immigration. 

Herein lies the rub, this document shamelessly attempts to create a false impression that a few less Scots not wanting more immigration than the English is somehow a majority desire for higher immigration in Scotland. It's not, it's really not. 

All of this means that the Scottish Government’s document is a farce. Rather than lead the case for Scots to understand that higher immigration is crucial for Scotland (within the Union or outwith it), cowardice means that it entirely ducks the fundamental issue. 

As a consequence, there are no immigration targets, no proposals as to how much higher immigration we will have to be post-independence, it’s just a piece of window dressing to pretend that Scots are better and more welcoming than the English when in fact it's all just ‘not in our backyard'.

As the paper says:

"Migration is an issue of central importance to Scotland’s future prosperity, the wellbeing of our communities and the sustainability of our public services."

I couldn't agree more. Such a shame that what followed was all chaff, fluff and warm apple pie rather than a case for the proper expansion in our rural population that Scotland so desperately needs. Mind you, what's the point of being a populist if you are going to tell people the cold hard truth?