Another poll out today from PanelBase (and sponsored by Campbell), this confirms the pattern seen over the past few weeks that with the yes movement stuck on their slow downward trend and giving more weight to John Curtis’ suspicion that the Times' last Panelbase poll was a statistical blip. So it’s less of Salmond’s Game On and more part of a pattern of waning enthusiasm for the independence movement.
All the data is from whatscotlandthinks and takes the mean average of each poll in each month (where they exist), the trend line is a straight line regression line of best fit
Saying that the 6 point poly trend does show a small bounce back in the yes movement, however that may be because the PanelBase polls which have dominated in frequency of late tend to give a stronger yes signal by focussing on likely voters. Time will tell if there has been a small swing back to the yes movement.
Of some interest however is Campbell’s cutting of the figures later on in the poll (q23) to attempt to come up with a spin which shows majority support for independence. This is based on a set of questions which split out the options to independence within the EU, independence out with the EU, or the UK out with the EU.
With the unionist options focussed to one and the nationalist options split out to two Campbell then adds them together.
Whilst there is no point in saying you can’t do that, clearly you can and he did! It just doesn’t make sense to do so. Adding the two nationalist options together doesn’t allow for the fact that some nationalists who want independence outside of the EU would choose the option of the UK outside the EU rather than independence within the EU.
Now of course some nationalists will argue which nationalist would possibly want that, but that simply shows their inability to see the reality that the Yes movement is divided on the question of the EU and far more divided than they realise. It also shows that the movement is in danger of fracturing into a true nationalist (out of UK and out of EU) and a nationalist lite movement (out of UK but in EU), although this will likely hold together through one more independence referendum campaign.
More importantly we can see the answer to this question when you either collapse the questions (the standard referendum question) or you expand the unionist options.
In both cases we get a set of returns which shows that the Yes Movement isn’t as united as some would think and that overall when faced with the choice of the UK or independence the majority of voters continue to support remaining in the UK.
That’s very important for Nicola Sturgeon as her statements at the time of the last election were very clear, a majority of Scots needed to support the case for independence before she called a referendum. Those words may come to haunt her when she likely “calls" a referendum. But more of that later.
Of some interest however is Campbell’s cutting of the figures later on in the poll (q23) to attempt to come up with a spin which shows majority support for independence. This is based on a set of questions which split out the options to independence within the EU, independence out with the EU, or the UK out with the EU.
With the unionist options focussed to one and the nationalist options split out to two Campbell then adds them together.
Whilst there is no point in saying you can’t do that, clearly you can and he did! It just doesn’t make sense to do so. Adding the two nationalist options together doesn’t allow for the fact that some nationalists who want independence outside of the EU would choose the option of the UK outside the EU rather than independence within the EU.
Now of course some nationalists will argue which nationalist would possibly want that, but that simply shows their inability to see the reality that the Yes movement is divided on the question of the EU and far more divided than they realise. It also shows that the movement is in danger of fracturing into a true nationalist (out of UK and out of EU) and a nationalist lite movement (out of UK but in EU), although this will likely hold together through one more independence referendum campaign.
More importantly we can see the answer to this question when you either collapse the questions (the standard referendum question) or you expand the unionist options.
In both cases we get a set of returns which shows that the Yes Movement isn’t as united as some would think and that overall when faced with the choice of the UK or independence the majority of voters continue to support remaining in the UK.
That’s very important for Nicola Sturgeon as her statements at the time of the last election were very clear, a majority of Scots needed to support the case for independence before she called a referendum. Those words may come to haunt her when she likely “calls" a referendum. But more of that later.
This is a total misrepresentation of what "Campbell" says in his blog post. In the poll he asked "how would you vote if a ref was held tomorrow?" 54% No and 46% Yes. In another question he asks about the Indy in EU or Out of EU and only adds together when stating that the EU is a problem for the Yes Campaign.
ReplyDeleteSo your case is that when I said Campbell put a spin on the numbers form Q23 - which he did in his "alert readers" comment - you did agree with that sentiment and therefore the blog is a "total misrepresentation"? Calm down.
ReplyDeletePoint is we both agree that the Yes movement is divided. An attempt to say that this is a Split between outward looking civic nationalism and inward British nationalism is just plain wrong as that inward looking nationalism also runs through the Yes campaign. But on that I think we are agreed there is a problem with the EU in the Yes camp and that's what this shows.
Fascinating Neil. EU ref turnout was lower in Scotland than in England, not sure what that means. I think Stu is onto a key thing in his dark lord musing, what do Scots Tories want - has it changed, will it change more? We now know that Banff and Buchan voted Leave but then our Tory farmers may feel happier with the EU - which itself is in the melting pot.
ReplyDeleteAre you going to update the chart when the next few pols start coming in?
ReplyDeleteYes that's the plan. Not every one but certainly keep it updated here. I'm waiting for the post article 50 polls as I think they will be the next inflexion point. Should help yes IMO.
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