#Indyref Polling update
In all the sound and fury of an election campaign it can be easy to miss independence polling. It was good to see You Gov issue a new independence poll so we can gauge the effect of the election campaign on the support for independence.
And the answer isn't good... if you are a nationalist.
A further tick up in support for the union takes us back above the linear and the poly trend and largely shows that any slight tightening in the polls from May's refusal to grant a Section 30 order has gone and probably been reversed.
This will leave Sturgeon in a difficult position if the General election shows the SNP losing further ground since the 2015 election.
Having lost the indyref, witnessed her party fall back in actual election results whilst support for independence continues on a downward trend it would be a brave, and probably, foolhardy politician that started legal moves for indyref2. To do so whilst there will be a relentless focus on the Scottish Government's day job will cause even more headaches for the SNP.
We may well be seeing the beginning of the end for that bizarre coalition of nationalists and those who believed (against all the evidence) that the SNP were a party of true social justice.
That coalition has been held together by the thought of victory, or at least a win that allows them to celebrate in George Square the way they did in the last days running up to the Indyref. They were denied victory in 2014, in 2015 the win in the General Election was marred by the realisation that they helped the Conservatives obtain a majority, in 2016 the election didn't go to script as the SNP lost their majority in Holyrood.
What then for 2017?
It's difficult to think of nationalists crowding out George Square celebrating the loss of (perhaps) some SNP MPs whilst May returns to Downing Street on a huge majority.
- Five long years of Tory majority rule with Number 10 clear that there wont be another indyref this side of the Scottish Parliament election.
- A Brexit which makes the nationalist case even more hopeless as it inevitably involves us cutting ourselves off from our main market far more than before.
- Support for independence draining away in the polls and support for the SNP on the slide.
- An SNP government that has spent 10 years trying to please everyone by ducking the tough decisions that all governments need to implement if they are to support the long term growth in society and the economy engulfed with chickens coming home to roost.
The cracks in that coalition are finally beginning to show, how much longer its got I've honestly no idea, but I do know this; when it does crack the spite and hate that will engulf the nationalist movement will be a sight to behold.
And the answer isn't good... if you are a nationalist.
A further tick up in support for the union takes us back above the linear and the poly trend and largely shows that any slight tightening in the polls from May's refusal to grant a Section 30 order has gone and probably been reversed.
This will leave Sturgeon in a difficult position if the General election shows the SNP losing further ground since the 2015 election.
Having lost the indyref, witnessed her party fall back in actual election results whilst support for independence continues on a downward trend it would be a brave, and probably, foolhardy politician that started legal moves for indyref2. To do so whilst there will be a relentless focus on the Scottish Government's day job will cause even more headaches for the SNP.
We may well be seeing the beginning of the end for that bizarre coalition of nationalists and those who believed (against all the evidence) that the SNP were a party of true social justice.
That coalition has been held together by the thought of victory, or at least a win that allows them to celebrate in George Square the way they did in the last days running up to the Indyref. They were denied victory in 2014, in 2015 the win in the General Election was marred by the realisation that they helped the Conservatives obtain a majority, in 2016 the election didn't go to script as the SNP lost their majority in Holyrood.
What then for 2017?
It's difficult to think of nationalists crowding out George Square celebrating the loss of (perhaps) some SNP MPs whilst May returns to Downing Street on a huge majority.
- Five long years of Tory majority rule with Number 10 clear that there wont be another indyref this side of the Scottish Parliament election.
- A Brexit which makes the nationalist case even more hopeless as it inevitably involves us cutting ourselves off from our main market far more than before.
- Support for independence draining away in the polls and support for the SNP on the slide.
- An SNP government that has spent 10 years trying to please everyone by ducking the tough decisions that all governments need to implement if they are to support the long term growth in society and the economy engulfed with chickens coming home to roost.
The cracks in that coalition are finally beginning to show, how much longer its got I've honestly no idea, but I do know this; when it does crack the spite and hate that will engulf the nationalist movement will be a sight to behold.
You hit the nail on the head, "trying to please everyone" now failing to make all Scots hate tories. It will give lots of unionists great pleasure to watch the slow death of SNP style nationalism
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting to see the trend slowly move away from independence, but frankly it might only take a single event to turn it back the other way. The recent local election results possibly also give an indication that SNP support has stalled, although it is difficult to compare local elections with national votes at the best of times. I've had a go at trying to put the results in some sort of context on my own blog ( http://apositiveunion.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/in-aftermath-of-local-elections-i-heard.html ) We'll need to wait for the general election results to see if there has been any significant movement in voter enthusiasm for breaking up the UK.
ReplyDelete